MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x495ebca3662ffba0229a5c2720380b517599474c2179ddd378ed514b9f438686
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees | 62c | 8,575$5,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,249.41 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 6,461$2,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,510.24 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked New York Yankees | 76c | 1,960$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.66 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 1,637$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.24 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed St. Louis Cardinals | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 21c | 999.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 770.99$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.56 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 665.99$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked New York Yankees | 61c | 600$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.05 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked New York Yankees | 61c | 561.84$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.12 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 502.31$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.79 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Yankees | 64c | 426.62$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.16 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 403.66$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.26 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed New York Yankees | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 22c | 389$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 378.06$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.1 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 71c | 372.53$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.22 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254b…7df6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 346$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.68 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked New York Yankees | 65c | 316.03$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.39 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 50c | 246$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.19 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked New York Yankees | 61c | 226.18$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.21 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 204.45$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.14 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 166.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 163.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 75c | 110.42$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked New York Yankees | 63c | 90.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed New York Yankees | 60c | 89.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked New York Yankees | 53c | 82.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 81.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 81.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked New York Yankees | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked New York Yankees | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed New York Yankees | 49c | 26.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 335 | 56.1%188 W · 147 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 26.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.