Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x370d09bf0dc605e310db3aa350b53f9908aae393b93bc4affeedca6960011cfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 276$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed No | 74c | 266$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.75 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 255.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.49 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 245.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…74b9backed No | 47c | 189.54$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.07 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 47c | 186.05$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.04 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 54c | 167.95$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 9c | 166.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 158.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 34c | 149.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.43 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 133.33$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd090…3bc5backed Yes | 76c | 131.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 50c | 128.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 126.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 126.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 120.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 25c | 119.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.69 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 30c | 116.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 32c | 113.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 65c | 110$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 30c | 104.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…8bbdbacked Yes | 41c | 102.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 102.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 18c | 101.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 101.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 13c | 101.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…3c91backed No | 25c | 98.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 23c | 96.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 90.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 75c | 85.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 29c | 69.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 25c | 69.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 76c | 65.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 72c | 63.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 29c | 62.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 70c | 58.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 72c | 56.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 54.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 38c | 50.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 50.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 48.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 62c | 47.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 67c | 44.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 63c | 42.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 36c | 41.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 33c | 38.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 43c | 37.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 32c | 37.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes | 37c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 34.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 56c | 28.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 74c | 26.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 26.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 25.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 24.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 57c | 24.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 23.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 21.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 74c | 20.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 68c | 17.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.