Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8307e42ab6d93ddd5862f483eb22e0b9231234ac634a38c799cfb018665677fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa94…3601backed Yes | 23c | 731.92$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.92 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 486.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 22c | 298.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 276.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 248.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 78c | 239.97$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 17c | 199.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 172.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 11c | 160$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 10c | 148.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 14c | 148.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 14c | 143.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 23c | 140$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 14c | 129.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 128$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 125.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 124.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 117$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 11c | 112.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 101$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 77c | 100.27$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 17c | 90.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 22c | 86.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 81.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 79.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 78c | 62.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 23c | 52.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 46.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 39.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 29.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 24.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 77c | 23.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 77c | 21.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 79c | 20.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…c843backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 15.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.