MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3730f66309628b28c91c24eeba8cab5bd4ae22c980fb8bc4d8f0c7aa3021f79f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 50c | 26,477$13,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,248.23 | 1,449 | 49.5%717 W · 732 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 41c | 20,702$8,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,390.18 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 10,117$4,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,652.11 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 45c | 2,960$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.86 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Under | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.9 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 19c | 694$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.86 | 3,231 | 51.2%1,655 W · 1,576 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…274cbacked Over | 25c | 400.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 48c | 346.49$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.62 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 54c | 238$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.94 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 63c | 187.94$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 129 | 48.8%63 W · 66 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…d8cabacked Under | 62c | 158.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…c5c3backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 40c | 104$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.28 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 80c | 70.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 5,861 | 43.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L | -190.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 43c | 44.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,292 | 56.8%734 W · 558 L | +31.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…2e8ebacked Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.