MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7dbfd019f4dc81b65de1a47f4149eaa242da6554e1bdc94dd79e5ab9d4d2c88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Minnesota Twins, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 7,776$3,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,965.91 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 52c | 7,095$3,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,440.3 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 2,693$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.69 | 2,077 | 39.3%817 W · 1,260 L | -27.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 45c | 1,835$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.69 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 55c | 1,521$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.09 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Athletics | 49c | 1,016$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518 | 378 | 56.9%215 W · 163 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Athletics | 56c | 894.9$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.9 | 298 | 50.7%151 W · 147 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…1901backed Athletics | 55c | 799.93$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.97 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Athletics | 55c | 791.2$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.04 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 385.81$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.76 | 3,562 | 51%1,817 W · 1,745 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked Athletics | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked Athletics | 56c | 290$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 47c | 236$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.03 | 5,182 | 54.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Athletics | 53c | 208.63$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Athletics | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 239 | 51.5%123 W · 116 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked Athletics | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -8.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed Athletics | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Athletics | 44c | 115.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.82 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 107.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 4,120 | 57.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L | +67.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Athletics | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 99.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 471 | 45.9%216 W · 255 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Athletics | 55c | 96.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked Minnesota Twins | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 230 | 56.5%130 W · 100 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Athletics | 45c | 83.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Athletics | 61c | 81.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 227 | 60.4%137 W · 90 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Athletics | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed Minnesota Twins | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 147 | 48.3%71 W · 76 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Athletics | 50c | 67.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Athletics | 50c | 60.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 2,200 | 40.2%884 W · 1,316 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Athletics | 55c | 60.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3,866 | 42.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Minnesota Twins | 45c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 384 | 49%188 W · 196 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 45c | 44.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 5,861 | 43.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L | -190.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 37.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 441 | 49%216 W · 225 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked Athletics | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 182 | 53.3%97 W · 85 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed Athletics | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Athletics | 57c | 34.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 944 | 56.5%533 W · 411 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Minnesota Twins | 72c | 31.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed Athletics | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9809…a60fbacked Athletics | 56c | 28.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Athletics | 53c | 27.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 151 | 53.6%81 W · 70 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Athletics | 55c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 423 | 48.2%204 W · 219 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 25.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…08a0backed Athletics | 56c | 25.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Athletics | 55c | 22.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 940 | 69.3%651 W · 289 L | +93.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.