MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f0bc4766c06d9957f1f2db2265c1515b49597979f492317379ace54097a05a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 52c | 92,839$48,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,432.85 | 1,449 | 49.5%717 W · 732 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 28,533$13,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,708.48 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 16,435$7,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,621.12 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 47c | 9,529$4,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,045.45 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 48c | 6,000$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,150 | 503 | 51.9%261 W · 242 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 5,835$2,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,092.55 | 3,562 | 51%1,817 W · 1,745 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 47c | 5,696$2,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,018.74 | 6,132 | 55.4%3,395 W · 2,737 L | +346.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 4,092$1,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,240.49 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Under | 52c | 3,971$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,065 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 3,051$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.28 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 48c | 2,898$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.56 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 47c | 2,762$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.94 | 803 | 55.7%447 W · 356 L | +22.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 47c | 2,400$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272 | 483 | 48.4%234 W · 249 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…274cbacked Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 53c | 624.31$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.11 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 47c | 619.09$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.12 | 1,745 | 49.1%857 W · 888 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked Over | 47c | 619.09$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.12 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 48c | 617.35$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.59 | 360 | 52.2%188 W · 172 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 49c | 487.56$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.26 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 46c | 444.69$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.17 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 54c | 432.15$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.87 | 364 | 51.4%187 W · 177 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 47c | 416.66$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.83 | 2,597 | 61.5%1,596 W · 1,001 L | +72.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 48c | 393.25$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.79 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fca…3487backed Over | 47c | 356.91$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.16 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 47c | 299.57$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.77 | 249 | 48.2%120 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 47c | 287$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.11 | 384 | 49%188 W · 196 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Over | 47c | 284.79$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.94 | 419 | 48.4%203 W · 216 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 275.26$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.89 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 47c | 256$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.68 | 150 | 53.3%80 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 247.62$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.46 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 47c | 246$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.38 | 491 | 46.4%228 W · 263 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 47c | 235.79$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.97 | 1,141 | 42.7%487 W · 654 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66f…0f3ebacked Over | 47c | 227.83$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.75 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 53c | 202.7$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.94 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 47c | 179$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.87 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 47c | 151.06$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.06 | 217 | 50.7%110 W · 107 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 47c | 145$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 2,372 | 49.7%1,179 W · 1,193 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 129$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 52c | 116.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 124 | 61.3%76 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…d002backed Over | 47c | 110.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 557 | 47.2%263 W · 294 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…74c8backed Over | 49c | 97.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 48c | 84.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 47c | 78.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 46c | 76.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 944 | 56.5%533 W · 411 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 3,866 | 42.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8599…ad67backed Over | 47c | 61.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 50c | 59.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 749 | 43.4%325 W · 424 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…8f07backed Under | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Under | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…a57cbacked Over | 46c | 45.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 411 | 53.8%221 W · 190 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 52c | 44.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 338 | 46.7%158 W · 180 L | -12.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 52c | 44.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 622 | 49.2%306 W · 316 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5692…b1b0backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 42.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 3,036 | 48%1,458 W · 1,578 L | +16.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 48c | 35.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 1,292 | 56.8%734 W · 558 L | +31.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 70c | 34.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 940 | 69.3%651 W · 289 L | +93.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 47c | 33.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 45c | 32.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Over | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 47c | 28.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,049 | 51.9%544 W · 505 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Under | 59c | 22.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 126 | 53.2%67 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…92d6backed Over | 53c | 21.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…8333backed Under | 64c | 16.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.