MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9167fd8541df6379073e1d18eeec83254bd045abc1e3083bde548a5080a71776
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x075d…58c1backed Over | 57c | 11,033$6,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,744.33 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed Over | 49c | 9,967$4,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,083.17 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 9,903$5,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,050.57 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 7,698$3,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,167.91 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 55c | 7,591$4,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,174.74 | 2,077 | 39.3%817 W · 1,260 L | -27.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 43c | 7,145$3,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,072.36 | 448 | 46.7%209 W · 239 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 57c | 3,510$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.3 | 720 | 53.3%384 W · 336 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 2,783$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.67 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 2,782$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610.97 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 43c | 2,116$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.87 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 43c | 1,600$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688 | 655 | 52.5%344 W · 311 L | +29.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 1,299$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.63 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 43c | 1,223$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.06 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Over | 56c | 1,180$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.2 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 71c | 1,087$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.28 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.79 | 360 | 52.2%188 W · 172 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 45c | 930.11$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.9 | 581 | 53%308 W · 273 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 45c | 800$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 885 | 50.4%446 W · 439 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Under | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 49c | 555$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.95 | 1,449 | 49.5%717 W · 732 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 73c | 543.87$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.19 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 46c | 498.55$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.53 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 44c | 414.5$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.38 | 753 | 50.6%381 W · 372 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 54c | 399$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.45 | 364 | 51.4%187 W · 177 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Under | 44c | 264$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked Over | 57c | 254.39$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.39 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 31c | 244.05$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 43c | 219$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 50c | 198.29$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.93 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Over | 57c | 175.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.43 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 43c | 108$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 384 | 49%188 W · 196 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 52c | 99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 179 | 44.7%80 W · 99 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 36c | 97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 5,861 | 43.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L | -190.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…730ebacked Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9895backed Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 46c | 70.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 2,200 | 40.2%884 W · 1,316 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6122backed Over | 51c | 70.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 56c | 58.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 3,866 | 42.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 45c | 47.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 322 | 54%174 W · 148 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…8333backed Under | 44c | 32.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 43c | 30.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 56c | 20.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.