MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64c23b259ceff44b80109ce78d2f3f37db940c2a141fece647d92961f414f44a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5461…92bebacked Over | 40c | 12,370$4,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,947.87 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 60c | 10,789$6,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,315.71 | 908 | 46.5%422 W · 486 L | +27.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 24c | 4,867$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.8 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 4,836$2,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,409.27 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 4,280$2,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.21 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed Over | 41c | 2,359$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.59 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 2,067$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.74 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 47c | 1,578$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.92 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 50c | 1,525$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.39 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 60c | 1,251$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.4 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 26c | 930.11$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.9 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 49c | 798$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.03 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 61c | 499$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.61 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 52c | 410$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Over | 45c | 283.66$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.42 | 150 | 24.7%37 W · 113 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 62c | 265.86$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.9 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 60c | 226.43$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.57 | 1,159 | 49.3%571 W · 588 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…776fbacked Over | 65c | 150.28$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 45c | 142.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 813 | 51.7%420 W · 393 L | +20.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 39c | 126.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 44c | 126$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 4,120 | 57.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L | +67.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 27c | 117.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 5,861 | 43.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L | -190.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…dbd6backed Over | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 25c | 99.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 179 | 44.7%80 W · 99 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 84.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,866 | 42.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 14c | 84.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.69 | 4,445 | 45%2,001 W · 2,444 L | +87.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa466…1c77backed Under | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 59c | 78.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 49c | 74.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Under | 61c | 73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Over | 32c | 70.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…ed7bbacked Over | 41c | 61.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 45c | 43.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 646 | 53.9%348 W · 298 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 32c | 43.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1,222 | 50%611 W · 611 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 1,501 | 63.4%951 W · 550 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 63c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Under | 61c | 32.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 44c | 31.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2,077 | 39.3%817 W · 1,260 L | -27.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 53c | 22.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 411 | 53.8%221 W · 190 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc5…5c2dbacked Under | 51c | 19.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 2,200 | 40.2%884 W · 1,316 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.