MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47ee48a58fffbcc39cbe887151b4576b7d63154820186213e1f4ffc1076f17e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Minnesota Twins | 73c | 2,472$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.83 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…da36backed Athletics | 54c | 1,298$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Athletics | 10c | 682.83$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.53 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Minnesota Twins | 46c | 399$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.54 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Athletics | 29c | 353.35$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.88 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa466…1c77backed Athletics | 11c | 330$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.7 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Athletics | 26c | 302.35$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.74 | 1,975 | 41.3%815 W · 1,160 L | -27.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 31c | 295.38$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.72 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Minnesota Twins | 71c | 289.39$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.9 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 271.74$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.96 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Athletics | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 126.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Minnesota Twins | 70c | 120$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Athletics | 29c | 113.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.81 | 3,866 | 42.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics | 26c | 103.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.26 | 4,445 | 45%2,001 W · 2,444 L | +87.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Minnesota Twins | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 908 | 46.5%422 W · 486 L | +27.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Athletics | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x840b…345fbacked Minnesota Twins | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 71c | 95.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Minnesota Twins | 74c | 67.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 364 | 51.4%187 W · 177 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Athletics | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 423 | 48.2%204 W · 219 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 5,861 | 43.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L | -190.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Athletics | 29c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Athletics | 27c | 38.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 27.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 944 | 56.5%533 W · 411 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed Athletics | 39c | 25.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 24.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked Minnesota Twins | 71c | 22.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 5,182 | 54.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.