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MLB · resolved market

Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Athleticsof Minnesota Twins, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,044,037
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,125,169

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,044,037 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d20…a165backed Athletics39c549,644$215,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334,526.224934.7%17 W · 32 L-6.6wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-32.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Minnesota Twins63c335,817$211,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,608.4990846.5%422 W · 486 L+27.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+36.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins52c104,154$53,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,652.4611,10251.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L+135.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ac…b964backed Minnesota Twins51c58,397$29,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,782.532853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Minnesota Twins53c47,845$25,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,485.933,13948.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L-10.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins52c40,316$20,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,840.6211,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins56c27,825$15,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,569.498,30446.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins68c27,500$18,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,677.084,42747.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L-77.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f9…c9a7backed Athletics21c22,905$4,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,094.765341.5%22 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+29.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae5c…5df7backed Minnesota Twins67c12,956$8,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,679.371136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.24per pick61cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Athletics60c11,789$7,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,750.658,68252.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L+505.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce36…2b99backed Minnesota Twins10c9,578$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.087431.1%23 W · 51 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Minnesota Twins25c7,903$2,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,003.0498645%444 W · 542 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins55c7,500$4,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,124.985,56750.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L+25.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed Minnesota Twins42c5,039$2,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,097.788650%43 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Athletics45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,75051052.5%268 W · 242 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Minnesota Twins57c4,452$2,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,518.252,07739.3%817 W · 1,260 L-27.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed Minnesota Twins42c4,200$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.6128747.7%137 W · 150 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Minnesota Twins15c3,729$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.5184342.9%362 W · 481 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Athletics44c3,722$1,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,084.3436743.6%160 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Minnesota Twins49c3,620$1,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,785.9163443.5%276 W · 358 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Twins55c3,501$1,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,925.63,56251%1,817 W · 1,745 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Athletics45c3,333$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,833.331,69850.2%853 W · 845 L-20.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Minnesota Twins57c2,648$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.737856.9%215 W · 163 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5a3…9e12backed Athletics44c2,273$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.73345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6451…b57abacked Athletics45c2,155$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.4415943.4%69 W · 90 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Minnesota Twins55c2,022$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.831,87750.2%943 W · 934 L-6.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics25c2,021$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.914,44545%2,001 W · 2,444 L+87.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Minnesota Twins57c1,848$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.3217442%73 W · 101 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Athletics45c1,667$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.6790553.6%485 W · 420 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Athletics30c1,638$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.195234.3%327 W · 625 L-1.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dde…30b1backed Athletics51c1,515$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.9345958.4%268 W · 191 L+19.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ff…3535backed Minnesota Twins4c1,427$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.12200%0 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Minnesota Twins14c1,311$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.472,17551.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L+54.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x689f…259cbacked Athletics38c1,250$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.9911441.2%47 W · 67 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x240a…814cbacked Minnesota Twins56c1,227$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.116662.1%41 W · 25 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Minnesota Twins55c1,163$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.641,42048.9%694 W · 726 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins55c1,160$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.997,07850.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L+1.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Minnesota Twins20c1,121$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.21,44949.5%717 W · 732 L-3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Minnesota Twins55c1,093$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.391,54351.1%789 W · 754 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Minnesota Twins10c1,027$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0829347.4%139 W · 154 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9707…e3bcbacked Athletics45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5503658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked Minnesota Twins55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55033048.2%159 W · 171 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64ef…befcbacked Minnesota Twins55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55031047.4%147 W · 163 L-1.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Minnesota Twins11c968.43$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3215628.8%45 W · 111 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Minnesota Twins26c827.16$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.6694456.5%533 W · 411 L+32.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Minnesota Twins46c806.7$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.991,25844%553 W · 705 L-33.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfe3…ec6fbacked Minnesota Twins60c795.91$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.55580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+63.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Athletics45c777.78$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.7824354.7%133 W · 110 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Minnesota Twins44c683.82$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.3788348%424 W · 459 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Athletics34c677.57$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.9518246.2%84 W · 98 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c75…227fbacked Athletics45c666.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.677054.3%38 W · 32 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed Minnesota Twins10c638.56$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7322943.2%99 W · 130 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Minnesota Twins55c578.18$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3181,69749.1%834 W · 863 L+3.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Minnesota Twins80c573.64$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.9124349%119 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Minnesota Twins47c508.56$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.8163648.9%311 W · 325 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Athletics44c455$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.81,14546.4%531 W · 614 L+37.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed Minnesota Twins61c428.82$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.0720649.5%102 W · 104 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeefa…f400backed Minnesota Twins47c420$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.41631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Minnesota Twins52c402.99$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2081957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Athletics50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20048745.2%220 W · 267 L-15.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Minnesota Twins46c399$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.422,15350.2%1,080 W · 1,073 L+27.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fd4…de15backed Athletics58c392.89$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.4822760.4%137 W · 90 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4cf…0e95backed Athletics45c380$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20915747.1%74 W · 83 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe026…f409backed Minnesota Twins66c367.71$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.792245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f42…6fcbbacked Athletics20c347.06$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.062729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins26c342.61$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.425,86143.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L-190.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Athletics33c322.41$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.0246058.9%271 W · 189 L+30.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b13…37dbbacked Athletics62c300$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1159754.6%53 W · 44 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Minnesota Twins5c299.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152025%5 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe8…72bcbacked Minnesota Twins5c287.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1725852.7%136 W · 122 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Athletics35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.7113634.6%47 W · 89 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50cc…a534backed Minnesota Twins56c267.86$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504533.3%15 W · 30 L-7.6wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa466…1c77backed Athletics33c250$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.55151%26 W · 25 L+6.9wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+166.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Athletics45c242.26$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.1163347.1%298 W · 335 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Athletics30c226.36$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.5434233.9%116 W · 226 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Athletics45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2267248.5%326 W · 346 L+2.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce7…3150backed Athletics45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2216845.8%77 W · 91 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bde…e51dbacked Athletics45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.224843.8%21 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Athletics77c220.14$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.681,01944.7%455 W · 564 L-23.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Athletics44c220$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.21,42343.6%620 W · 803 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins61c217.26$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.769,89146.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L+40.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Minnesota Twins39c212.71$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7649649%243 W · 253 L-2.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Minnesota Twins34c207.18$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.941,16042.6%494 W · 666 L-40.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Athletics39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1221,45249.9%725 W · 727 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Athletics45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1103,32046.2%1,535 W · 1,785 L+22.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0af1…1901backed Athletics44c199.87$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.937367.1%49 W · 24 L+6.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x72f3…d396backed Minnesota Twins56c196.43$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11052246.7%244 W · 278 L-22.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x962e…1d75backed Minnesota Twins49c184.65$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.045949.2%29 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58d5…8898backed Athletics44c180$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.81,22643.6%534 W · 692 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcda3…36cfbacked Athletics44c179.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.81,33144.1%587 W · 744 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c78…7d67backed Athletics41c179.98$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.599149.5%45 W · 46 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfec…774abacked Minnesota Twins56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005448.1%26 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd32f…4f71backed Minnesota Twins56c178.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004755.3%26 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x425d…86e1backed Athletics21c166.62$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.635920.3%12 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Minnesota Twins59c165.69$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6236451.4%187 W · 177 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f5…fa54backed Minnesota Twins63c164.24$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Athletics54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.111,53459.5%912 W · 622 L+83.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa14f…9a6ebacked Athletics28c148.77$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.231546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x42e9…80c7backed Minnesota Twins65c140.4$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.261020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-59.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.