Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3737fe68cbaeebce29d460802dbbf0d7ddb4698f8b342b85aa0402f0203fe6b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,859 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c51…d7aebacked Yes | 0c | 28,264$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 66c | 1,135$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.61 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 996$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 77c | 994.61$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.74 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 34c | 802$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.82 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 593.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…d5bfbacked No | 67c | 592.77$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.95 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…d0e4backed Yes | 61c | 486.27$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.77 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 64c | 378.06$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.43 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…8640backed Yes | 60c | 350$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 26c | 344.29$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.42 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 15c | 331.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.23 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 301.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 11c | 300.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 13c | 287.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 13c | 287.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 70c | 248.63$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.52 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 25c | 245.74$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.24 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 26c | 242.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 27c | 242.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 25c | 234.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 19c | 212.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 47c | 211.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.9 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 68c | 208.74$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.34 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 11c | 181.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 13c | 177.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 9c | 173.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 17c | 173.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 9c | 166$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 18c | 165.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 163.82$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 14c | 163.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…86cbbacked Yes | 73c | 153.91$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadc2…77e0backed Yes | 67c | 148.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 13c | 147.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 31c | 145.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.02 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…942abacked Yes | 8c | 142.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 141.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 139.84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 13c | 131$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 36c | 130$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 33c | 128.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…9b9cbacked Yes | 11c | 123.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 12c | 122.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 9c | 116.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 9c | 115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…3664backed Yes | 16c | 112.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 39cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…204dbacked No | 38c | 96.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 70c | 94.78$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…ae7dbacked Yes | 14c | 83.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked No | 57c | 76.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 39c | 75.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 26c | 67.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 32c | 65.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 77c | 59.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 52c | 59.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 21c | 59.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…c042backed Yes | 69c | 56.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 54c | 48.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…0a2abacked No | 69c | 43.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…1d89backed No | 51c | 39.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 61c | 39.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 26c | 38.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 26c | 38.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 41c | 35.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…69debacked Yes | 40c | 35.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba09…ea86backed Yes | 71c | 27.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 55c | 27.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 42c | 24.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 59c | 21.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 78c | 18.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08b2…a7ecbacked Yes | 71c | 16.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 57°F or below on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.