TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,859

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,859 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c51…d7aebacked Yes0c28,264$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.222825%7 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-59.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed Yes66c1,135$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.6130664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes34c996$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.86,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes77c994.61$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.743732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes34c802$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.8281234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes11c593.36$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad72…d5bfbacked No67c592.77$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.953652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2a9…d0e4backed Yes61c486.27$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.771656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes64c378.06$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.4325037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2518…8640backed Yes60c350$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No26c344.29$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.4258349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No15c331.75$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.2359742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes8c301.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.882,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Yes11c300.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9313523%31 W · 104 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x594e…1c11backed Yes13c287.3$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.566144.5%294 W · 367 L+57.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes13c287.26$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7145619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes70c248.63$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.529053.3%48 W · 42 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No25c245.74$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.241,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes26c242.4$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8498738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes27c242.37$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2621235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes25c234.76$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7925839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes19c212.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2621641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No47c211.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.959923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes68c208.74$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.3443525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed Yes11c181.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes13c177.68$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.291,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes9c173.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8619617.9%35 W · 161 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8319…96f4backed Yes17c173.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.986717.9%12 W · 55 L-10.9wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-56.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes9c166$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.061,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes18c165.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9940525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c163.82$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1236…78bebacked Yes14c163.1$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.617330.1%22 W · 51 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5327…86cbbacked Yes73c153.91$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.12673.1%19 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick73cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadc2…77e0backed Yes67c148.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13e6…c310backed Yes13c147.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5115911.3%18 W · 141 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No31c145.93$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.0290040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1025…942abacked Yes8c142.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes11c141.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No44c139.84$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x11a4…bba6backed Yes13c131$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1312223%28 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No36c130$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.13,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes33c128.32$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3524932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68cf…9b9cbacked Yes11c123.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4890%0 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes12c122.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2123231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6850…d921backed Yes9c116.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.428111.1%9 W · 72 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes9c115$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.98650%43 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb41b…3664backed Yes16c112.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.04771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick39cpaid+74.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc49b…204dbacked No38c96.84$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.961952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x131d…2a50backed No70c94.78$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7310335.9%37 W · 66 L-15.3wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-38.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3ec0…ae7dbacked Yes14c83.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3258%2 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-55.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed No60c83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.213748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbc0…1843backed No60c80$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.214372%103 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4279…9f1bbacked No57c76.07$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7310043%43 W · 57 L+9.0wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes39c75.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7834219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b3d…2c18backed No26c67.62$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.377065.7%46 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes32c65.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7133535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No77c59.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.641,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes52c59.82$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.291,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No21c59.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.151,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0d2…c042backed Yes69c56.31$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.72633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200e…7d37backed No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.496767.2%45 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes54c48.33$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.218255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes56c45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.24346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc18…0a2abacked No69c43.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.572166.7%14 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed44…1d89backed No51c39.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a49…8d1fbacked No61c39.23$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.38248.8%40 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1385…e96abacked No26c38.71$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.713732.1%44 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed No26c38.71$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.719133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No41c35.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9318316.4%30 W · 153 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0401…69debacked Yes40c35.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba09…ea86backed Yes71c27.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.440%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes55c27.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157653.9%41 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b25…51eebacked Yes56c26.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156753.7%36 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes42c24.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2731442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa019…7935backed No59c21.92$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.095375.5%40 W · 13 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes78c18.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.458640.7%35 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x08b2…a7ecbacked Yes71c16.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6077…8a56backed Yes64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010956.9%62 W · 47 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.