Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02c795ff200ab431a892dfda4232aec3818f9c505a97d258786d803fb871626b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,172 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde4c…fa5fbacked No | 7c | 17,800$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…bc37backed No | 9c | 3,600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 23c | 1,498$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.49 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 996.53$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…d5bfbacked Yes | 53c | 945.89$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.97 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 76c | 808.59$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.21 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 45c | 665.05$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.5 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed Yes | 77c | 626.47$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.54 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 4c | 589.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 16c | 544.32$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed Yes | 79c | 486.33$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.03 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 21c | 480.92$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked No | 17c | 399.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 22c | 387.32$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.18 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 11c | 385.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 41c | 316.69$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.88 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 42c | 315.63$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.65 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 16c | 312.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 34c | 301.48$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.73 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…8640backed Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 65c | 256.63$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.04 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 53c | 251.09$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed Yes | 45c | 245.56$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.68 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 74c | 205.81$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 49c | 205.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.32 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 15c | 204.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 26c | 200.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x316c…0194backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +6.1wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 19c | 192.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 20c | 178.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…4909backed No | 19c | 170.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 20c | 170.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 77c | 169.86$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 30c | 168.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.2 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 15c | 165.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 53c | 154.79$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.37 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 27c | 151.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.85 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 15c | 149.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 14c | 145.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed No | 14c | 142.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 24c | 136.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 69c | 134.69$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 80c | 132.49$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked Yes | 39c | 130.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.11 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 21c | 130.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc97c…b49ebacked No | 23c | 129$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 80c | 126.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 34c | 121.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 26c | 119.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…fbdebacked Yes | 33c | 119.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.33 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 46c | 118.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.45 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed No | 15c | 114.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 38c | 110.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 18c | 110.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 79c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 41c | 105.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb92d…1b33backed No | 16c | 103.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…d7aebacked No | 19c | 102.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…204dbacked Yes | 25c | 97.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 32c | 91.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…022dbacked Yes | 38c | 90.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c84…88f3backed Yes | 33c | 89.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 14c | 89.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…439bbacked Yes | 42c | 87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…c042backed Yes | 51c | 77.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 48c | 77.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 35c | 77.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 30c | 71.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 27c | 67.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 27c | 67.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 22c | 65.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 31c | 64.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…1465backed No | 78c | 63.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 32c | 62.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 78c | 57.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 35c | 54.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 47c | 53.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 74c | 50.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…3664backed Yes | 34c | 50.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 39cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…5d51backed No | 20c | 49.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 24c | 49.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 42c | 48.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed No | 35c | 48.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed No | 36c | 47.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 45.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 43c | 44.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x493b…c7edbacked Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 76c | 39.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 41c | 38.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x251c…8c5bbacked Yes | 79c | 35.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 50c | 35.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…efdebacked Yes | 73c | 33.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 65c | 32.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 57°F or below on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.