TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,172

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,172 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde4c…fa5fbacked No7c17,800$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2461520%3 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9453…bc37backed No9c3,600$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3241323.1%3 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-51.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No23c1,498$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.4913531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes61c996.53$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.686,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad72…d5bfbacked Yes53c945.89$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.973652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed Yes76c808.59$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.2110346.6%48 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes45c665.05$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.581234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f1c…55e4backed Yes77c626.47$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.544887.5%42 W · 6 L+12.0wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+49%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No4c589.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.111,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No16c544.32$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.163,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1558…4f75backed Yes79c486.33$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.034271.4%30 W · 12 L+7.1wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+28%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No21c480.92$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2758349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked No17c399.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7021641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No22c387.32$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1886050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No11c385.65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9159742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes41c316.69$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.8898738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes42c315.63$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.6521235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No16c312.26$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.71,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No34c301.48$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7390040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2518…8640backed Yes66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6077…8a56backed Yes65c256.63$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0410956.9%62 W · 47 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes53c251.09$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.0212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x376a…d270backed Yes45c245.56$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.684889.6%43 W · 5 L+14.9wins+0.31per pick59cpaid+78%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes74c205.81$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.421,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffe0…919ebacked Yes49c205.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.327758.4%45 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No15c204.76$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.341,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x131d…2a50backed No26c200.97$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2510335.9%37 W · 66 L-15.3wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-38.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x316c…0194backed Yes77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462979.3%23 W · 6 L+6.1wins+0.21per pick58cpaid+56.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No19c192.17$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7954037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed No20c178.68$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.141,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd81e…4909backed No19c170.7$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No20c170.55$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.281,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x094e…a709backed Yes77c169.86$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.079260.9%56 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes30c168.24$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.234319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No15c165.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No53c154.79$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.371,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes27c151.34$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.851,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No15c149.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9259923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No14c145.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.961,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1573…a727backed No14c142.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.992740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-41.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6eb3…d405backed No24c136.29$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5810247.1%48 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed No69c134.69$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3930664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes80c132.49$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8434651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bb4…692abacked Yes39c130.66$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.113357.6%19 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3735…5a5bbacked No21c130.13$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2615136.4%55 W · 96 L-11.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc97c…b49ebacked No23c129$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.761631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-56.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes80c126.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.48535.3%30 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No34c121.68$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3712744.9%57 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed No26c119.76$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5916520.6%34 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71d…fbdebacked Yes33c119.48$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.332638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes46c118.37$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4533535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed No15c114.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1545619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes38c110.85$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.091,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed No18c110.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9538840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Yes79c110$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.544448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94e6…0a73backed Yes41c105.87$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.967841%32 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb92d…1b33backed No16c103.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.64616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c51…d7aebacked No19c102.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.622825%7 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-59.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49b…204dbacked Yes25c97.53$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.151952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No32c91.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8136819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c5a…022dbacked Yes38c90.96$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.022326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11a4…bba6backed No19c90$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7712223%28 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c84…88f3backed Yes33c89.34$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.912657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8638…2d36backed No14c89.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.512954.3%70 W · 59 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad1b…439bbacked Yes42c87$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.821154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0d2…c042backed Yes51c77.7$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.21633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes48c77.58$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.34869.3%8 W · 78 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-41%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed No35c77.36$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1724932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14f4…5944backed No26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203531.4%11 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes30c71.03$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5855919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1385…e96abacked Yes27c67.78$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4813732.1%44 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed Yes27c67.78$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4819133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b24…6e4abacked No22c65.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.197233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes31c64.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.882,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5984…1465backed No78c63.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.45per pick65cpaid-60%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes32c62.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3659440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes78c57.38$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.798,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes27c55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.431442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes35c54.14$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0225839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No47c53.97$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.591,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No74c50.51$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3917355.5%96 W · 77 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb41b…3664backed Yes34c50.42$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.42771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick39cpaid+74.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes71c49.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.59520%19 W · 76 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a96…5d51backed No20c49.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.132352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x368c…e8d5backed No24c49.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.856243.5%27 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes42c48.88$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.187,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xcce6…77d1backed No35c48.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.849139.6%36 W · 55 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e8b7backed No36c47.76$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.195117.6%9 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-55.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes62c45.05$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xbb5d…3961backed Yes43c44.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.289142.9%39 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeccd…d100backed No23c43.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1013122.1%29 W · 102 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4b9…b47fbacked Yes48c42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.688048.8%39 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x493b…c7edbacked Yes34c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.61540%6 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cee…507abacked Yes76c39.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.214465.9%29 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-7.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39da…5318backed No41c38.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.756643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x251c…8c5bbacked Yes79c35.57$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4968…cda7backed Yes50c35.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.65147.1%24 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbef6…efdebacked Yes73c33.64$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.24650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes65c32.88$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.592,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.