La Liga · resolved market
Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37740f0d558e0ebe375312eb7118a9dab55403c51ba463e8e1eec537e6caa576
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 6c | 3,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 24c | 1,350$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.5 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Over | 22c | 905.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 22c | 682$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.04 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…9bb8backed Over | 24c | 541.67$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 24.6%34 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48d7…1bd1backed Over | 21c | 468.03$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…9d67backed Over | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 7c | 414.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 22c | 346.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 150 | 34.7%52 W · 98 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 19c | 337.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 342 | 52%178 W · 164 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…7b78backed Over | 22c | 316.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 15c | 256$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2b…4c50backed Under | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 27.2%31 W · 83 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 22c | 135.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Over | 23c | 112$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c7…554dbacked Over | 23c | 91.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 30.4%58 W · 133 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Over | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Over | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…0c2abacked Over | 24c | 64.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Over | 23c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 24c | 41.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 195 | 44.1%86 W · 109 L | +13.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Under | 78c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked Under | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Under | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Under | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 78c | 26.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Under | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Under | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe113…375dbacked Under | 80c | 15.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed Under | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5this page
- Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.