Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37a3df2b678b9c0d23f9106bc3001e9f0c468b195961836e10ca0a7e974883ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Shopify Rebellion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Shopify Rebellion | 50c | 5,799$2,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,899.26 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…25cdbacked Team Liquid | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.78 | 664 | 37.2%247 W · 417 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…eba7backed Shopify Rebellion | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.98 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4e…b690backed Team Liquid | 50c | 1,387$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.55 | 825 | 54.8%452 W · 373 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed Team Liquid | 49c | 1,271$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.15 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Team Liquid | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,156 | 45.1%521 W · 635 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…0558backed Team Liquid | 49c | 395.67$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.79 | 182 | 36.8%67 W · 115 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Shopify Rebellion | 50c | 310$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed Team Liquid | 50c | 291$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 115 | 67.8%78 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Shopify Rebellion | 51c | 209.72$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 372 | 45.2%168 W · 204 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d1…8fe6backed Team Liquid | 49c | 201.64$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.83 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Team Liquid | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 605 | 38.8%235 W · 370 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5114…fc31backed Team Liquid | 49c | 181.44$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…98e1backed Shopify Rebellion | 56c | 129.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 167 | 62.3%104 W · 63 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c8…86b4backed Shopify Rebellion | 51c | 88.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 191 | 57.1%109 W · 82 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…8259backed Team Liquid | 49c | 78.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 381 | 44.6%170 W · 211 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Liquid | 43c | 60.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Team Liquid | 49c | 59.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe245…3bc8backed Team Liquid | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Shopify Rebellion | 51c | 30.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 285 | 59.6%170 W · 115 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…22b6backed Team Liquid | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Team Liquid | 44c | 25.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Team Liquid | 47c | 22.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 390 | 56.4%220 W · 170 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…b4d5backed Shopify Rebellion | 51c | 20.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 411 | 56.7%233 W · 178 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed Team Liquid | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Liquid won
- LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.