Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37b4e66ed76a1ae459bf10d847a67f8b177df9e948837bb216db7f0ddeeb0a8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 987.54$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 795.57$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.39 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 20c | 553.83$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.47 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 8c | 466.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.3 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 74c | 446$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.75 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 31c | 299.32$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 79c | 253.6$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 22c | 251.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.36 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 228.96$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.29 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 14c | 210.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.73 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 15c | 205.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.59 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 18c | 189.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.34 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 79c | 169.19$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 66c | 155.39$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.55 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 155$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 17c | 152.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.19 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 31c | 150.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.22 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 149.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.31 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 80c | 146.92$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.08 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 68c | 145.54$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 142$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 58c | 135.33$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 42c | 128.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.81 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 10c | 126.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.52 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 37c | 122.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 62c | 121.21$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 120.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 11c | 111.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 11c | 111.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f5…29f5backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +135.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 18c | 97.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 94.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8223…7cecbacked Yes | 14c | 85.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 19c | 84.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 82.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 28c | 74.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 36c | 65.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 79c | 62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 74c | 54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 56c | 53.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…4b7fbacked Yes | 20c | 51.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 32.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 38c | 32.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…ce36backed Yes | 43c | 29.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 23.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c3b4backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 12.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.