Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ece6ea8e71e48e1a06bc1f3afae28b8cf1f4c02da84e063e897ee2934579fb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 10c | 695.64$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 563.97$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.42 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 46c | 471.19$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.7 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 373.03$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 54c | 307$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.98 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 306.92$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 303.16$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 48c | 282.78$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.37 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 243.01$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 241.58$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7103…c469backed No | 56c | 217.2$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 63c | 187$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.57 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 65c | 185.05$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 175$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 79c | 160.22$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 150$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 43c | 141.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 47c | 128.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 40c | 125.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 113.91$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 42c | 110.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 107$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 51c | 106.91$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 53c | 95.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 50c | 94.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 56c | 91.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 57c | 83.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 81.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 38c | 76.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 74.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 70.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 49c | 68.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 64.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 56c | 57.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 31c | 57.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 51c | 55.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 49c | 52.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 54c | 51.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 50c | 49.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 47.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 75c | 47.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 38.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 54c | 30.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 50c | 24.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 22.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 19.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 78c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.