Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dfcb186ea5222309816d212c280cfe57df6a299d7e840a57513af736efcb380
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 66c | 1,061$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.59 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 753.77$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.74 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 717.61$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 663.4$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.11 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 647.27$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 565.52$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.18 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 340.64$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 43c | 301.46$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.31 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 37c | 246.74$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.83 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 223$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 47c | 214.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 53c | 208.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.22 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 44c | 203$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.93 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 190.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 162.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 52c | 162.91$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.29 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 161.56$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 51c | 157.9$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 155.24$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 155$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 55c | 149.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 63c | 142.62$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 63c | 141.04$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 63c | 140.96$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 134.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 36c | 118.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 55c | 111.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 56c | 101$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6255…2718backed Yes | 12c | 100.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 91.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 34c | 85.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78f5…29f5backed No | 32c | 81.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +135.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 43c | 77.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 76.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 68.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9e…5bdcbacked Yes | 67c | 67.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 73cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 26c | 65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked No | 78c | 63.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 41c | 54.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 47c | 53.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 37c | 53.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 51.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 74c | 51.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 21c | 50.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1046…a534backed Yes | 39c | 46.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 39c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 67c | 44.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 61c | 44.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 38c | 40.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 40.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 55c | 33.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 62c | 33.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 30.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 63c | 29.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 34c | 29.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 61c | 27.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 27.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 25.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 58c | 23.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 53c | 21.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x709c…c11dbacked Yes | 62c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 61c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.