CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37c5daa04306a2a86db917388e62efdff6af1f7dae3b1d1c6b1cf1218cb662f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lilmixof G2 Ares, Lilmix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x904e…0becbacked G2 Ares | 19c | 15,000$2,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,912.73 | 5,034 | 37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L | -260.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked Lilmix | 46c | 3,330$1,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.55 | 634 | 57.1%362 W · 272 L | +40.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcd…0a69backed G2 Ares | 55c | 2,500$1,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.77 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Lilmix | 42c | 2,433$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410.9 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Lilmix | 48c | 2,160$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.68 | 4,238 | 49.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L | +60.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Lilmix | 35c | 2,078$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.3 | 2,223 | 47.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L | -5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e86…6dfbbacked Lilmix | 50c | 2,045$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.88 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Lilmix | 47c | 1,836$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.74 | 3,236 | 51.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L | +88.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…6704backed Lilmix | 48c | 1,400$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731 | 205 | 62.4%128 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed G2 Ares | 53c | 1,171$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.93 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked G2 Ares | 49c | 1,065$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 265 | 46.8%124 W · 141 L | -18.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed G2 Ares | 46c | 1,038$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.53 | 2,664 | 30.8%820 W · 1,844 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed G2 Ares | 61c | 754.16$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.03 | 932 | 61.7%575 W · 357 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d6…041dbacked Lilmix | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -13.0wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Lilmix | 58c | 459$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.72 | 2,393 | 46.7%1,118 W · 1,275 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…de16backed G2 Ares | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6421…045dbacked Lilmix | 47c | 400.23$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.12 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed G2 Ares | 61c | 360$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.87 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lilmix | 45c | 304.49$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.47 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked G2 Ares | 44c | 271.52$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.41 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Lilmix | 55c | 269.08$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.48 | 1,890 | 41.9%791 W · 1,099 L | -71.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed G2 Ares | 55c | 237.1$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.37 | 1,377 | 66.4%914 W · 463 L | +77.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked G2 Ares | 71c | 202.83$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.01 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…1deebacked G2 Ares | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed G2 Ares | 62c | 187.39$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.71 | 2,645 | 51.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L | +21.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked G2 Ares | 33c | 173.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 1,659 | 32.7%542 W · 1,117 L | -49.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Lilmix | 50c | 171.2$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…bfcbbacked Lilmix | 59c | 163.4$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.01 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Lilmix | 67c | 155$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 2,397 | 42.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4e…abebbacked G2 Ares | 78c | 128.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Lilmix | 61c | 120$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 3,267 | 45.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L | -85.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Lilmix | 61c | 119$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked G2 Ares | 41c | 106.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 318 | 45.3%144 W · 174 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed Lilmix | 62c | 97.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 242 | 60.3%146 W · 96 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07e2…6099backed G2 Ares | 62c | 95.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Lilmix | 42c | 88.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 754 | 38.9%293 W · 461 L | -38.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lilmix | 61c | 87.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 821 | 42.5%349 W · 472 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Lilmix | 46c | 87.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 4,099 | 51%2,091 W · 2,008 L | +74.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked G2 Ares | 52c | 84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 3,949 | 36.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L | -201.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed G2 Ares | 57c | 78.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 2,554 | 41.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L | -116.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked G2 Ares | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 215 | 36.3%78 W · 137 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked G2 Ares | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 921 | 45.8%422 W · 499 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Lilmix | 49c | 73.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked G2 Ares | 55c | 72.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 191 | 51.8%99 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Lilmix | 49c | 66.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 2,143 | 47.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L | -61.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Lilmix | 22c | 65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 1,895 | 47.8%906 W · 989 L | -50.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked G2 Ares | 45c | 61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6efa…a0a7backed G2 Ares | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 302 | 47%142 W · 160 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed G2 Ares | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 270 | 37.8%102 W · 168 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked G2 Ares | 54c | 59.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 630 | 38.6%243 W · 387 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2b…af40backed G2 Ares | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked G2 Ares | 57c | 52.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 211 | 59.7%126 W · 85 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…11b8backed Lilmix | 45c | 52.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Lilmix | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 1,283 | 22%282 W · 1,001 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6362…97bfbacked G2 Ares | 30c | 49.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…d92fbacked Lilmix | 33c | 45.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 226 | 58%131 W · 95 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Lilmix | 53c | 36.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 531 | 45.4%241 W · 290 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked G2 Ares | 34c | 33.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 602 | 32.4%195 W · 407 L | -49.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed G2 Ares | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked G2 Ares | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,632 | 43.2%705 W · 927 L | -32.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0420…58bbbacked G2 Ares | 47c | 29.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -5.7wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Lilmix | 49c | 24.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 2,605 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,234 L | +97.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked G2 Ares | 68c | 22.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…d39fbacked Lilmix | 53c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb25…0e5bbacked G2 Ares | 68c | 17.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked G2 Ares | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 447 | 63.5%284 W · 163 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group DG2 Ares won
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix - Map 1 WinnerG2 Ares won
- Map Handicap: G2.A (-1.5) vs Lilmix (+1.5)Lilmix won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.