Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38127b2880db80b01c101157bdae9de5a05983897d0fed4dc3c94036b1500b66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,583 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 9c | 654.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 343.62$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 330.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 55c | 292.92$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.16 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 56c | 268.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.63 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…467bbacked No | 7c | 227.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 200.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.29 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 6c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 199.04$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 12c | 178$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 46c | 176$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.75 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 54c | 174.67$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.07 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 51c | 170.27$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 164.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 48c | 156.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 56c | 130.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 56c | 127.23$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 125$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 34c | 124.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 11c | 121.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 65c | 109.86$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 70c | 107.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 104.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 23c | 101.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 62c | 100.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 15c | 95.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 90$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed No | 59c | 88.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes | 71c | 83.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 32c | 80.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 45c | 78.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c80…99fdbacked Yes | 40c | 76.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0021…7c05backed No | 67c | 75.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 68c | 73.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 76c | 70.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 47c | 70.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 42c | 69.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 41c | 68.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed No | 40c | 68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 30c | 66.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbc…0083backed No | 49c | 65.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 39c | 64.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 32c | 61.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 17c | 59.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…4d38backed Yes | 47c | 58.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 49c | 57.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 51.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked No | 60c | 50.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked No | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 49.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 54c | 45.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…c30dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 56c | 45.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 45c | 44.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 44.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…5e82backed Yes | 70c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…5d3dbacked Yes | 69c | 42.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 71cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…2a45backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked Yes | 47c | 41.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 40.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 35c | 38.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 59c | 38.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 37.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 59c | 33.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked Yes | 50c | 33.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 33.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 36c | 32.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0035…f917backed Yes | 56c | 32.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 64c | 31.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 48c | 31.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 52c | 30.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9e…94e7backed No | 58c | 30.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed No | 41c | 28.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…14bcbacked Yes | 57c | 26.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…0ccdbacked No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…5d90backed No | 63c | 25.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed No | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked No | 61c | 24.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 60c | 24.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C or below on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.