Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e171b33c5c78ff57ddea7f44d211fc239949e8d0792b0d148c732da747c548c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,700 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 773.82$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 6c | 554.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 11c | 422.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 20c | 366.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.54 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 20c | 299.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 68c | 295.93$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.93 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…f4c3backed Yes | 24c | 279.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbc…0083backed Yes | 10c | 251.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 16c | 238.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 21c | 208.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 200.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 198.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 190.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 30c | 176$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 149.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 7c | 143.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 12c | 134.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 22c | 132.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 20c | 128$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 22c | 127.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 126.58$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 124.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 14c | 124.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 124.05$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 20c | 118.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 11c | 118.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 14c | 111.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 15c | 108$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 21c | 107$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 12c | 99.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1d…e391backed Yes | 13c | 99.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed No | 70c | 95.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 11c | 91.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 17c | 88.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 24c | 84.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 74c | 81.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 14c | 80.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 24c | 77.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c80…99fdbacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…4d38backed Yes | 28c | 72.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 34c | 62.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 62.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 66c | 60.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 59.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 33c | 57.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 19c | 54.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e77…f4d7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…d4aabacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…1e2dbacked Yes | 32c | 47.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 33c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed Yes | 25c | 40.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…5d90backed No | 79c | 37.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…1935backed No | 79c | 36.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…eb67backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 32c | 32.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 30.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…9e76backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 64c | 29.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 76c | 26.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 67c | 21.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C or below on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.