Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb16c8a02b9b440b6498353683d0be5f16ca5768230711b46a16ddf8f6f3f1ea8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,832 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 565.67$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 9c | 373.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 30c | 328.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 12c | 279.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 9c | 263.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 77c | 257.77$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed Yes | 14c | 244.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 17c | 243.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 19c | 239.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0021…7c05backed Yes | 20c | 216.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 22c | 205.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 22c | 203.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 196.47$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 14c | 176.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 15c | 176$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 20c | 171.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 14c | 170.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 8c | 156.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 155.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…2f58backed Yes | 7c | 151.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 30c | 142.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 70c | 137.35$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 16c | 136.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 134.64$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 77c | 131.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed Yes | 25c | 130$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 125.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 25c | 102.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…73d9backed No | 62c | 99.49$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 34c | 88.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 87.02$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 16c | 86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 35c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 83.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 80.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c80…99fdbacked Yes | 14c | 75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 38c | 66.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 64.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 16c | 63.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d4…0c26backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 32c | 62.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed No | 73c | 61.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 56.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked Yes | 25c | 51.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 33c | 50.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 21c | 49.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 38c | 47.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 45.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 33c | 45.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 67c | 45.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 80c | 44.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 34c | 39.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb879…aa96backed No | 66c | 38.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 76c | 35.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…be08backed Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 77c | 23.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 75c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 70c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C or below on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.