Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3812e00c29adb25dcaf61a62fe28f34bf568ca71df08479880eff3247d822915
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e75…4e58backed No | 2c | 24,567$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.17 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 11,000$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x625a…8410backed No | 2c | 2,345$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 17c | 1,294$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.72 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 66c | 950.87$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.88 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 35c | 412.77$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.37 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 33c | 336.7$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.34 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 17c | 335.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.71 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 203.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 19c | 196.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 171.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.7 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 155.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.62 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 154.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 146.02$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.55 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 141.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 9c | 139.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.39 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 25c | 133.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.15 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 38c | 122.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 13c | 113.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.24 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 105.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.05 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 104.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 104$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…bc88backed Yes | 38c | 102.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 75c | 98.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 23c | 97.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 19c | 88.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.63 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed No | 23c | 86.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 23c | 80.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 80.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 63c | 79.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 74.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 62c | 71.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 41c | 65.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 64.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 38c | 62.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 60c | 60.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 46c | 58.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 33c | 56.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 56.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 24c | 53.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 37c | 52.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 29c | 52.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 75c | 35.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 63c | 34.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 54c | 32.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked Yes | 77c | 31.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 29.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 64c | 26.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 78c | 25.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 23.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed No | 68c | 23.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 21.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 67c | 20.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 62c | 20.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 69c | 19.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a89…0e5dbacked No | 67c | 18.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 69c | 18.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 67c | 16.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 16.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 76c | 13.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C or higher on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.