NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38472a6c271bd0c252a88e39cb56b8331a279bd8c4a1a2b3535f668467929bb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Suns | 57c | 15,526$8,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,849.52 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Rockets | 47c | 15,010$7,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,955.3 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 43c | 12,960$5,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,336.88 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Rockets | 43c | 9,000$3,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,130 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Suns | 55c | 9,000$4,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,950 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Suns | 53c | 7,015$3,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,704 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Suns | 58c | 6,076$3,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,524.27 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Rockets | 49c | 5,989$2,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,064.38 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 49c | 2,797$1,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.85 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rockets | 47c | 2,315$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.5 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Rockets | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.66 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Suns | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rockets | 43c | 1,467$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.19 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0585…5fa1backed Rockets | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.79 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rockets | 49c | 1,067$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.15 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Rockets | 43c | 355.92$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.88 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Rockets | 42c | 315.7$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.6 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Rockets | 41c | 279.02$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.62 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…2e7fbacked Suns | 59c | 261.02$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Rockets | 45c | 249.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Rockets | 45c | 220$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.64 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd565…972bbacked Rockets | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Rockets | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…cddfbacked Suns | 46c | 176$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…3157backed Rockets | 54c | 163$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rockets | 47c | 140.22$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Suns | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…848ebacked Suns | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2012…128fbacked Rockets | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Suns | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Rockets | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Rockets | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Suns | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Rockets | 52c | 61.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Rockets | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x075a…8d34backed Suns | 48c | 37.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Suns | 47c | 28.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…1ae8backed Rockets | 53c | 28.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Suns | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4997…508bbacked Suns | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-10.5)this page
- Spread: Rockets (-11.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Rockets won
- Suns vs. RocketsRockets won
- Suns vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Suns vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5Under won
- Suns vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5Under won
- Suns vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5Under won
- Suns vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.