NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef04fc264d3c47f0d302c2bdf4719ada5ebd855a0d0079e6c2b18a1bb23b0530
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Suns | 59c | 10,000$5,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,899.99 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 44c | 6,823$3,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,789.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Rockets | 41c | 5,355$2,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,156.11 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Rockets | 46c | 4,656$2,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,510.3 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Suns | 54c | 4,279$2,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,305.77 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Suns | 57c | 4,144$2,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,362.19 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Rockets | 41c | 3,805$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,244.95 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Suns | 54c | 3,125$1,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,687.5 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 28c | 2,952$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Rockets | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Suns | 52c | 2,002$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.8 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Suns | 56c | 1,891$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.69 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Suns | 60c | 1,743$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.76 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Rockets | 49c | 1,625$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.67 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Rockets | 48c | 1,563$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.5 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Suns | 52c | 1,273$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.92 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Rockets | 48c | 1,229$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Suns | 51c | 1,052$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.39 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Rockets | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rockets | 44c | 864$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.57 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Suns | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Rockets | 48c | 681.25$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.25 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Rockets | 41c | 600$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Rockets | 41c | 518$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.62 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Rockets | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Suns | 53c | 499.99$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Rockets | 48c | 484.99$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.2 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Suns | 55c | 427$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.85 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Rockets | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Rockets | 45c | 396.67$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.17 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Suns | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Suns | 56c | 359.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.7 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Suns | 40c | 327$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Suns | 66c | 249.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Rockets | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Rockets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Rockets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca47…3ef4backed Rockets | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Rockets | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da9…582ebacked Suns | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Rockets | 47c | 191.68$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.59 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Suns | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Suns | 25c | 188.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Rockets | 47c | 172.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.69 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cc…6bb9backed Suns | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e08…9726backed Suns | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Rockets | 44c | 111$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Suns | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Rockets | 49c | 98.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Suns | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Suns | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…368cbacked Suns | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Rockets | 41c | 85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Suns | 59c | 85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Rockets | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…184cbacked Suns | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Suns | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Suns | 53c | 67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Suns | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Suns | 51c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa19f…f745backed Suns | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rockets | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Rockets | 73c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Rockets | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Suns | 52c | 38.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6347…cdd5backed Suns | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Suns | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Suns | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Rockets | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed Rockets | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Rockets | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Suns | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Suns | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Suns | 55c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Suns | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-11.5)this page
- Spread: Rockets (-10.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Rockets won
- Suns vs. RocketsRockets won
- Suns vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Suns vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5Under won
- Suns vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5Under won
- Suns vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5Under won
- Suns vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.