Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x387cccb92e48a6514394508bebb61b2842d5c6d517f1085114ea1b70a4b159de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VfL Wolfsburgof TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, VfL Wolfsburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,152 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0792…b778backed VfL Wolfsburg | 55c | 50,000$27,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,499.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d8…9f3fbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 45c | 15,035$6,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,800 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…7976backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 45c | 12,851$5,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,783 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked VfL Wolfsburg | 54c | 8,036$4,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,716.35 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 45c | 7,869$3,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,553.47 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…276fbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 45c | 6,845$3,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,080.39 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked VfL Wolfsburg | 54c | 5,155$2,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,391.28 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 43c | 4,990$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160.21 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…ed78backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 47c | 3,617$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 45c | 3,070$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.87 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b93…e941backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.28 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed VfL Wolfsburg | 54c | 1,674$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.34 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 33c | 1,540$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.29 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 45c | 910.09$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.54 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 46c | 717.39$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 45c | 600$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…f6dcbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 48c | 333.33$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 42c | 299.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 41c | 292.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffe…ce5bbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 48c | 286.27$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 45c | 273.04$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.87 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed VfL Wolfsburg | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 47c | 241$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.27 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…afd5backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 47c | 212.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d6…be17backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 41c | 192$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 43c | 182.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfedd…32c4backed VfL Wolfsburg | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 45c | 122.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 30c | 112.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed VfL Wolfsburg | 55c | 110.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 46c | 106.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 48c | 101.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…eaf5backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 38c | 91.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…ce87backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed VfL Wolfsburg | 54c | 85.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 46c | 84.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35b8…898abacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc00…79f8backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked VfL Wolfsburg | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2d…8452backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked VfL Wolfsburg | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8142…f311backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed VfL Wolfsburg | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…2a20backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 45c | 46.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed VfL Wolfsburg | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked VfL Wolfsburg | 64c | 39.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 45c | 35.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 46c | 33.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 40c | 32.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 48c | 29.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8123…268cbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed VfL Wolfsburg | 55c | 24.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…1e73backed VfL Wolfsburg | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)this page
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.