TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
VfL Wolfsburgof TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, VfL Wolfsburg
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,152

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,152 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0792…b778backed VfL Wolfsburg55c50,000$27,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,499.88540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d8…9f3fbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim45c15,035$6,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,800650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x287a…7976backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim45c12,851$5,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,783666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+29.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked VfL Wolfsburg54c8,036$4,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,716.3533244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim45c7,869$3,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,553.472,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim45c6,845$3,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,080.393452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3102…187cbacked VfL Wolfsburg54c5,155$2,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,391.285152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim43c4,990$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,160.213,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f4…ed78backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim47c3,617$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim45c3,070$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.8734144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b93…e941backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim47c2,128$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.281163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed VfL Wolfsburg54c1,674$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.3435856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim33c1,540$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.296227.4%17 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim45c910.09$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.542867.9%19 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+29.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim47c851.06$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004949%24 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim46c717.39$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim45c600$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2705455.6%30 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0100…f6dcbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-49.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim48c333.33$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1604020%8 W · 32 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-47.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13822854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim42c299.99$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12633340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15d7…a861backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim41c292.68$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ffe…ce5bbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim48c286.27$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.41742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim45c273.04$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.8725850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed VfL Wolfsburg53c250$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.58143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim47c241$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.2717251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x054b…afd5backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim47c212.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d6…be17backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim41c192$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim43c182.36$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.413857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfedd…32c4backed VfL Wolfsburg55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606339.7%25 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim45c122.75$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2412157.9%70 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim46c120$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.213957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim46c120$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.213254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e9c…e966backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick45cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504454.5%24 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim30c112.93$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0122221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed VfL Wolfsburg55c110.36$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6114734.7%51 W · 96 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim46c106.38$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9337344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501978.9%15 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdecf…caf2backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim48c101.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.84639.1%18 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x449c…eaf5backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim38c91.01$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6630647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc684…ce87backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim33c90.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed VfL Wolfsburg54c85.5$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.337254.2%39 W · 33 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim46c84.18$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7214355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim45c80$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365839.7%23 W · 35 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x35b8…898abacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim45c66.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302450%12 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5944…bd5bbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim46c65.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013851.4%71 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim46c65.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim45c55.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258050%40 W · 40 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x891f…88bfbacked VfL Wolfsburg54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.562564%16 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf2d…8452backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim46c54.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+120.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked VfL Wolfsburg56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2212843%55 W · 73 L-9.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8142…f311backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim44c49.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.992458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed VfL Wolfsburg53c48$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5622047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6404…2a20backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim45c46.47$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.991414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-72.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205742.1%24 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020540%82 W · 123 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x639f…6b8dbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207639.5%30 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed VfL Wolfsburg69c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.47550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked VfL Wolfsburg64c39.69$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.454151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim45c35.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1212064.2%77 W · 43 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe164…acfebacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim46c33.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.511338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim40c32.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1328822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeca1…57e4backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim48c29.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.251650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8123…268cbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim46c26.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe748…bc49backed VfL Wolfsburg55c24.29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.984339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-21.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7cc3…1e73backed VfL Wolfsburg53c19.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.44242.9%18 W · 24 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-23.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.