Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98bf039e277a0f5208e2ca9ccca124dd18014270ae64d54415394e3061034c57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,471 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 47c | 6,166$2,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,872.07 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb29e…d14fbacked Yes | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 49c | 1,398$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.1 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 42c | 963.18$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.79 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 47c | 499.97$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.99 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes | 53c | 400$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 39c | 355$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.45 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 42c | 350.76$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.05 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 42c | 281.41$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 39c | 249.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 45c | 233.85$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 39c | 228.72$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 39c | 219.66$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Yes | 60c | 216.67$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Yes | 61c | 201.63$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.64 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 60c | 174.35$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Yes | 58c | 171.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 40c | 168.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a80…49bfbacked Yes | 61c | 165.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.18 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142e…f6e4backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…a1d5backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 61c | 156$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 39c | 127.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe388…9da3backed No | 63c | 119.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 50c | 84.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Yes | 60c | 83.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed No | 40c | 81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed No | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd9…3dadbacked Yes | 61c | 63.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 39c | 60.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Yes | 43c | 58.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Yes | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 48c | 49.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2047…3313backed Yes | 61c | 47.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 33c | 42.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked Yes | 27c | 42.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Yes | 55c | 41.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 51c | 41.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Yes | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…997fbacked Yes | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…7560backed No | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 39c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Yes | 52c | 36.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d9bbacked Yes | 45c | 35.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 45c | 35.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Yes | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…770ebacked Yes | 61c | 32.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked Yes | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…81b2backed Yes | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.