TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$195,433

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,433 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd29…77aebacked Over47c109,402$51,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,419.086358.7%37 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Under53c64,779$34,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,446.053452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under55c30,929$17,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,837.863,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd9d…b730backed Over47c21,000$9,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,869.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under53c17,500$9,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,249.9916652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd36…6ec9backed Under53c8,298$4,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,900.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Under53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3506058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Over42c4,870$2,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,056.74839.6%19 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f12…70d4backed Under53c4,264$2,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.12650%13 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x287a…7976backed Under53c4,062$2,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,909.26666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+29.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under53c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,88033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over20c2,376$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.682,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2196…da90backed Over47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Under53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9404650%23 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over47c1,975$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.6135856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Under53c1,409$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.457254.2%39 W · 33 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under53c1,058$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.0622047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Over48c962$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.767639.5%30 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over47c951.04$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.2734144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Under53c799.97$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.983447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x258f…4493backed Over27c638$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.267424.3%18 W · 56 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaad…c739backed Under53c613.21$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.212259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2825455.6%30 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28215742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Under53c566.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.041050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Under53c547.81$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.4725850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Over12c529.01$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.486227.4%17 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Over48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2404360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over47c457$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.797345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Under53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18831145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Under54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.372138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Over29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875236.5%19 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under53c275.24$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.3612157.9%70 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under63c250.68$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.341,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bcf…402abacked Over9c249.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.59123.1%21 W · 70 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under62c246.52$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.681,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6394…9749backed Over48c229.17$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102025%5 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-50.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xacb5…d643backed Over48c212.76$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.125848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Over48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008050%40 W · 40 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over26c199.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528844.3%39 W · 49 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c7d…d1c9backed Over35c199.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.99757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under54c198.18$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.4830647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under69c188.7$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.77458.1%43 W · 31 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under52c178.25$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5663645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df4…4eacbacked Over47c159.57$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74cf…cf82backed Under54c108.68$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e78…70c7backed Under53c105.74$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.72254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf469…dcaabacked Under53c101.75$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.82966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ca7…0c48backed Under52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482268.2%15 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+42.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56ef…190abacked Over47c98.65$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.37250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ae…035cbacked Over47c96.38$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over46c95.19$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7937344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf25a…d724backed Under53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.341050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9730…1cedbacked Under54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d3…0698backed Under55c90.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.92969%20 W · 9 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+30.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa224…3e32backed Under54c86.35$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Under53c82.69$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.814734.7%51 W · 96 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb95…a5ccbacked Under54c80$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.853557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa427…f87fbacked Under53c77.73$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.533148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0339…1394backed Over48c72.92$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick46cpaid-72.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over28c71.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9611744.4%52 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Under56c66.16$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.220153.7%108 W · 93 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Over35c65.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235939%23 W · 36 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d72…c356backed Under53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Under54c55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.31435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under52c53.22$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4133938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under53c53.05$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9312064.2%77 W · 43 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2412843%55 W · 73 L-9.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3991…b6c7backed Over47c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.54951%25 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under53c47.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.591,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Under53c46.4$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.817766.2%51 W · 26 L+8.2wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x111c…40a3backed Over47c42.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.01742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7353…a4f0backed Over47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc82…c7c5backed Under53c42$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.742100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+103%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208056.3%45 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under53c41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.279838.8%38 W · 60 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under52c39.76$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0748146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f62…0412backed Over47c39.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0ea…d40abacked Under53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.74250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe293…d3edbacked Under53c37.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.392665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Under54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.043063.3%19 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x641f…049abacked Over47c34.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a67…0b8abacked Over47c32.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.361369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+53.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5cdf…31e7backed Under53c31.96$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.021154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5ad…21f7backed Over47c31.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…edb9backed Over47c31.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152020%4 W · 16 L-7.6wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-69.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xd25c…fe19backed Over48c31.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c05…639ebacked Over48c31.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe164…acfebacked Under54c30.56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.061338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Under35c30.28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.741070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+26.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cc9…c447backed Under54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca53…195fbacked Under53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21c0…e4c7backed Under54c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.643100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcf0…b95dbacked Under54c25.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc3…1e73backed Under53c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.754242.9%18 W · 24 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-23.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x61e4…fb60backed Under56c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116855.9%38 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under52c24.5$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7610855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa684…ca71backed Over48c21.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.34728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Over47c21.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.