Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38812d6df2fce2f14225ae644be77c899e995cbb572945d2401702a0cc565603
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 6c | 3,518$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.45 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,573$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 19c | 1,118$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.21 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 877.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 17c | 629.97$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.09 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 2c | 546.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 26c | 540.62$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.24 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 25c | 467.4$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.83 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 420.99$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa127…4e1fbacked Yes | 4c | 417.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 9c | 405$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 10c | 349.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 279.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 230.01$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 25c | 227.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 13c | 195.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 20c | 188.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 14c | 183.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 175.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 166.8$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 19c | 165.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 27c | 163.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 14c | 160.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…8c07backed Yes | 27c | 157.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 156.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 156.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 154.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 10c | 152.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 149.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 32c | 147.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…118dbacked Yes | 7c | 134.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 27c | 131.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x863f…1d3ebacked No | 76c | 131.17$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 123.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 119.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…7f49backed Yes | 20c | 117.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 19c | 113.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 18c | 109.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 98.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 14c | 95.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 86.78$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 21c | 85.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 78.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 22c | 74.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 21c | 72.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 20c | 71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 16c | 68.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 15c | 67.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 58.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 79c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 26c | 52.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 20c | 51.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked No | 73c | 50.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0b…72c6backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 77c | 41.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ae…d103backed No | 75c | 36.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed No | 80c | 26.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 24.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d0…fad2backed No | 71c | 20.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 73c | 20.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 20.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564a…8871backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2327backed No | 77c | 18.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa19a…30b0backed No | 79c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.