Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d997a68bf55c1f3142afa236320b3325228d7f3413fae5a67cc865c2859f894
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2947…9dedbacked No | 0c | 6,983$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 32c | 1,219$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.96 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 24c | 1,058$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 56c | 1,006$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.31 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 69c | 994.74$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.42 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 970.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 60c | 909.27$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.43 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 76c | 786.85$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.79 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 47c | 724.67$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.05 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 27c | 507.79$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.97 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1eb…52c6backed Yes | 60c | 499.06$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.06 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8b…c2d0backed No | 64c | 449.94$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 8c | 440.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 432$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.76 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 35c | 400.98$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.83 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…3515backed Yes | 39c | 400.02$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.62 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed No | 33c | 399.61$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.17 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 44c | 353.09$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.56 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 37c | 327.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.89 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 4c | 320.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 53c | 319.45$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.91 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 305.82$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 253$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.65 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 18c | 241.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 236.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 10c | 222.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 8c | 209.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.08 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed No | 41c | 199.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9044…dcedbacked Yes | 38c | 199.46$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded9…0c22backed Yes | 34c | 198.86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 63c | 198$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.07 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 57c | 197.62$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.62 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…8c07backed Yes | 35c | 182.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 43c | 180$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 6c | 174.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 28c | 169$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 166.81$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 38c | 160.86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 9c | 160.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 154.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.33 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 36c | 149.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 66c | 148.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 50c | 130.51$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 55c | 128.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…7f49backed Yes | 37c | 117.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Yes | 49c | 116.81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 48c | 113.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…464fbacked Yes | 38c | 112$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 110$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b6f9backed Yes | 38c | 102$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked Yes | 40c | 100.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 35c | 99.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 38c | 98.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5750…955abacked No | 21c | 96.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 95.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 86.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 83.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 44c | 82.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 48c | 78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…b2afbacked Yes | 40c | 74.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 69.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 30c | 67.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 66.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 64.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 57.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 47c | 52.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…0d63backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 37c | 49.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 68c | 47.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 58c | 46.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…de58backed Yes | 37c | 45.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…ae91backed Yes | 33c | 45.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 47c | 42.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked Yes | 59c | 42.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 43c | 40.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 36c | 40.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes | 37c | 36.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…c2ebbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 34.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 53c | 34.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 62c | 33.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 41c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 61c | 32.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…bc42backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.