Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59dddbb53236bb9b86c82fc724bca70506c8e993d1ffe6500881831be62f5e9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2947…9dedbacked Yes | 0c | 13,181$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 9c | 1,130$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.87 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 18c | 794.17$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.25 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes | 31c | 757$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.31 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 19c | 599.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 27c | 465.91$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.29 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 74c | 456.43$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.94 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 439.79$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.34 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 29c | 426.11$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.93 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 395$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 17c | 351.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 349.67$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 18c | 334.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 14c | 329$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 267.23$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 30c | 202.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 76c | 201.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 30c | 201.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 28c | 201.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 31c | 200.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 76c | 190.47$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 22c | 188$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 6c | 180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 163.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 160.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 158.61$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1eb…52c6backed Yes | 38c | 154$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed No | 76c | 143.74$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 70c | 132.7$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 18c | 129.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 71c | 127.03$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c53…6339backed Yes | 29c | 125.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 121.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…7f49backed Yes | 27c | 117.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 116.78$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 66c | 115.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…464fbacked Yes | 29c | 112.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 39c | 110.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 106$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b6f9backed Yes | 26c | 100.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 30c | 99.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 27c | 99.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 95.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 30c | 94.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 94.55$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 28c | 86.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 85.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 85.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 25c | 81.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 75c | 73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 27c | 70.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 31c | 70.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 78c | 68.41$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 64.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…6215backed Yes | 31c | 64.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 76c | 62.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 28c | 61.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba95…ec86backed Yes | 35c | 56.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x395b…0a23backed Yes | 21c | 55.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 80c | 55.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 53.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 73c | 52.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 25c | 51.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…ae91backed Yes | 32c | 47.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 32c | 43.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 43.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b6…798dbacked Yes | 26c | 42.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…54dfbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 36cpaid | -79%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes | 35c | 36.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 30c | 34.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 79c | 33.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…6c3cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 50 | 82%41 W · 9 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 73c | 23.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 64c | 23.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 79c | 17.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 14.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.