TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,502
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,613

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,502 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2947…9dedbacked Yes0c13,181$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick31cpaid-17.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes9c1,130$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.877945.6%36 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes18c794.17$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2528925.3%73 W · 216 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes31c757$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.314531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes19c599.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11434922.9%80 W · 269 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes27c465.91$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.2927129.2%79 W · 192 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2851…6b8cbacked No74c456.43$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.9468338.8%265 W · 418 L+36.1wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No73c439.79$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.343,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01ce…27a2backed Yes29c426.11$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.9355336.7%203 W · 350 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No74c395$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.985,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes17c351.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.552,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c349.67$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.555,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x702e…4357backed Yes18c334.31$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020832.7%68 W · 140 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes14c329$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4517524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No69c267.23$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.64,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes30c202.25$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.315433.8%52 W · 102 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No76c201.99$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8847866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes30c201.51$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0940226.9%108 W · 294 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes28c201.1$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.73221.9%7 W · 25 L-6.3wins-0.20per pick41cpaid-57.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes31c200.88$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2818731%58 W · 129 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No76c190.47$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.623,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad50…3122backed Yes22c188$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.547423.6%112 W · 362 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x13d3…415ebacked Yes6c180$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.642253.1%224 W · 198 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes26c163.29$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.317,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes26c160.9$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No77c158.61$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.873,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1eb…52c6backed Yes38c154$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.58785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+33.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4f3…afd7backed No76c143.74$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358041.3%33 W · 47 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No70c132.7$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9519662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes18c129.13$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9137532.8%123 W · 252 L+36.4wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+109.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No71c127.03$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.811,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c53…6339backed Yes29c125.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0560%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes16c121.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.651,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e6e…7f49backed Yes27c117.65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.221618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No68c116.78$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.922,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No66c115.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5963757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x797b…464fbacked Yes29c112.96$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.741330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83cd…e218backed Yes39c110.58$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439448.9%46 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No74c106$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.994,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f73…b6f9backed Yes26c100.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.262055%11 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+68.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278027.5%22 W · 58 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-25.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.430832.5%100 W · 208 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9188…e046backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1856921.8%124 W · 445 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe037…8a91backed Yes20c99.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.617841.6%74 W · 104 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes30c99.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2371031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked Yes27c99.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.717025.3%43 W · 127 L-11.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No73c95.81$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.14,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes30c94.68$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No73c94.55$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.573,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ba…da46backed Yes28c86.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9814635.6%52 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No70c85.84$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.186,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c85.59$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.689,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc0b…a782backed Yes25c81.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051537.5%193 W · 322 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No75c73$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1816348.5%79 W · 84 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4989…983ebacked Yes27c70.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1933626.8%90 W · 246 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd23…fababacked Yes31c70.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1615722.9%36 W · 121 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed No78c68.41$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3764460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No73c64.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.42,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda89…6215backed Yes31c64.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+53.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cb1…e80cbacked No76c62.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.999965.7%65 W · 34 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde67…c144backed Yes28c61.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9114835.8%53 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba95…ec86backed Yes35c56.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202010%2 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-55.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x395b…0a23backed Yes21c55.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.522236.4%8 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+12.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No80c55.3$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.062,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No73c53.7$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.552,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No73c52.31$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0771159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed Yes25c51.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8722853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.554232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94c0…a805backed No71c49.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.67558.7%44 W · 31 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes23c49.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.511330.1%34 W · 79 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes30c48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.438655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x578e…ae91backed Yes32c47.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e71…afe6backed Yes32c43.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1427226.5%72 W · 200 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No77c43.19$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.022,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27b6…798dbacked Yes26c42.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.092035%7 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8862…54dfbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.28per pick36cpaid-79%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes35c36.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.53327.3%9 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes30c34.65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3913553.3%72 W · 63 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No69c34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.632,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed No79c33.81$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0241051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2691…6c3cbacked Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid+26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.15082%41 W · 9 L+8.3wins+0.17per pick65cpaid+28.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.041,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No69c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7551568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No72c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6698565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5024…3007backed No73c23.11$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1926948.3%130 W · 139 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+68.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No64c23.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2877851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x177b…6e61backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.912458.1%72 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c19.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.653353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.751,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No79c17.32$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.5971464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked No64c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7612758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No73c14.06$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.