Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38b9b48812697c27c1f563c61c929d7a15a356faf55c48a4686500c37ed86ff4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Up | 1c | 7,432$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Down | 78c | 2,831$2,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.91 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6577…2660backed Up | 3c | 1,524$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Up | 19c | 979.73$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.45 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…9d12backed Up | 41c | 743.55$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Down | 73c | 699.04$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.46 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Down | 58c | 618.71$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.78 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Up | 43c | 601.32$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.57 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…56dabacked Down | 56c | 473.04$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…b1d4backed Down | 55c | 401.23$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Up | 40c | 260.47$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.41 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Up | 41c | 242.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Up | 25c | 203.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc679…4914backed Up | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Up | 18c | 183$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Down | 74c | 148.93$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Down | 56c | 148.74$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 18c | 139.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Down | 68c | 137$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…20b0backed Up | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…6ac9backed Down | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Down | 55c | 85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Up | 23c | 78.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Up | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…049fbacked Up | 44c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Down | 56c | 58.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…6f33backed Down | 58c | 52.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d01…b284backed Up | 45c | 44.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…d830backed Up | 37c | 40.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2f…d675backed Up | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Up | 35c | 38.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…67f4backed Down | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Up | 45c | 33.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Down | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4d…f7dbbacked Down | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c1…8975backed Down | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…fa30backed Down | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Up | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7075…c796backed Down | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.