Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38e4368a7c0a253e91b74f0abd9acb8b461b6eafc8cec4c56d9ba5919d0bb88e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 76c | 263.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 228.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 39c | 210$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 62c | 198.67$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 191.91$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 179.17$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 58c | 159.03$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.79 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 41c | 152.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 143.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 132.84$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 58c | 119.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 36c | 119$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 118.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 117.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 53c | 116.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 113.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 52c | 101$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 53c | 90.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 42c | 78.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 72.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 47c | 70.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 39c | 69.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 69.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 63.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 62c | 59.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 56.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 55.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 47c | 54.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…4d78backed No | 58c | 49.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 46c | 46.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 62c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 45c | 44.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 56c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked No | 47c | 43.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 42c | 42.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 41.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 38c | 41.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 37c | 41.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 52c | 38.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 37c | 37.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x956e…7e32backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 54c | 33.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b92…ddcdbacked Yes | 42c | 32.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddf…b38cbacked Yes | 45c | 30.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 42c | 29.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…e470backed Yes | 38c | 28.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 21.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 61c | 17.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 61c | 16.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.