Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ba0394b4ce6fb2b249436aca8acd4a4f6d4272d0b7bd6b6e369d11938f6088d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 1c | 2,523$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 442.57$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 407.83$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc317…a731backed Yes | 38c | 346.39$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.39 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 290.41$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 275.65$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 31c | 262.17$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.62 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 20c | 232$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 40c | 211.93$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.09 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 29c | 205.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.58 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 193.36$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 37c | 187.5$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.3 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 172.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed No | 75c | 161.76$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed No | 77c | 152.8$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.59 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 25c | 150.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.96 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 37c | 149.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.25 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 25c | 139.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.81 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 25c | 130$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.24 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 68c | 118.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 117.8$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 114.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 26c | 101$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 97.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 97.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 92.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 15c | 89.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 82.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 20c | 81.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 22c | 78.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 24c | 73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ca…739abacked No | 74c | 67.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 39c | 64.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 57.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 75c | 55.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 78c | 51.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 22c | 51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 24c | 47.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 47.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 58c | 42.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 69c | 29.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 24.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…9bc4backed No | 68c | 17.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 69c | 17.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x96a2…a1a7backed No | 78c | 16.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 14.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.