Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb816ddc825c1653cd701261bbee8dfb1c1830d08deb7415a798fc788810807b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 546.94$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 514.49$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 17c | 318.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 21c | 284.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 17c | 268.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 267.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 266.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 9c | 238.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 13c | 209$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 79c | 169$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 165.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 72c | 156.75$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 20c | 137.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 18c | 135.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 25c | 135$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 25c | 130.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 129.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 10c | 128.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 13c | 121$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 23c | 119$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 117$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 13c | 111.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 15c | 94.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 14c | 92.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 25c | 68.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 25c | 65.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 27c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 63.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 28c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 61.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 60.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 56.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 78c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…c411backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4746backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 78c | 13.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.