Fifa International · resolved market
Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38e523273ccd0a598d3bd4d5b3eebd8b27d6b561e66ff4cdaf43fc2d39f8f2e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb7e…28ddbacked Yes | 49c | 882.69$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.48 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Yes | 54c | 630$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.8 | 753 | 35.6%268 W · 485 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 49c | 620.75$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.26 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 34c | 451.88$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.69 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 41c | 418.7$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.22 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 65c | 373.76$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.79 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a64…51d1backed No | 80c | 299.92$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.94 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 290.12$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.24 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 61c | 276$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.7 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 15c | 252$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed Yes | 66c | 151.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 38c | 132$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 76c | 125$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 341 | 51%174 W · 167 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 144 | 36.1%52 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 107$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5d…4a56backed Yes | 24c | 106.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 34c | 104$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…b7e4backed No | 51c | 98.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5872…e66bbacked Yes | 66c | 91.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 18c | 71.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 71.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 19c | 63.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 51c | 63.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…bed6backed No | 49c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Yes | 67c | 52.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe41…4c90backed Yes | 66c | 49.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8041…fc83backed Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 86 | 74.4%64 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f722backed No | 35c | 45.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 80c | 45.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 285 | 47.7%136 W · 149 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…b0a9backed Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6087…61e8backed Yes | 59c | 42.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 35c | 38.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x988a…c110backed Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…7056backed Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…6007backed Yes | 67c | 19.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7db…6688backed No | 78c | 14.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?this page
- Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.