Mls · resolved market
Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38e9fc72e0cc4126e9043f7758f07568f3d9c5f89fb7e807ae1711c0e69f5122
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a8f…e5f5backed Under | 45c | 4,121$1,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,854.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 52c | 3,500$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.96 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 51c | 2,228$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.47 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Over | 50c | 1,941$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.69 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 55c | 1,543$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.2 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Over | 49c | 1,509$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.49 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 44c | 1,410$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.01 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 1,178$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.54 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 56c | 1,016$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.13 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 48c | 913.04$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.78 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 49c | 728.23$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.4 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 79c | 573.26$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 54c | 477.1$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.26 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 80c | 320$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 48c | 301$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.52 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 49c | 268.55$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.96 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 52c | 253$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.56 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 54c | 248.85$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.47 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 48c | 230.83$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.03 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 212.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.72 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 52c | 210$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.29 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 48c | 206.07$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.67 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 48c | 199.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Over | 48c | 169.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 34c | 151.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.98 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Over | 56c | 146.48$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.45 | 140 | 62.1%87 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Over | 48c | 141.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 48c | 116.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…2703backed Under | 52c | 113.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d56…1c7dbacked Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…1444backed Over | 49c | 112.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 66c | 102.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 71c | 88.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 51c | 88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Over | 57c | 87.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…c12abacked Under | 26c | 77.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 66c | 65.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 57c | 55.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 47c | 52.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 50c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 40c | 37.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Under | 52c | 37.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…f9e0backed Under | 51c | 36.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 35c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 51c | 31.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 50c | 29.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 51c | 29.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec8…c5d4backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba4…3fa6backed Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0b…5efdbacked Under | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 22.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 48c | 21.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 21.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Over | 49c | 20.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…2aeabacked Over | 80c | 15.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: Portland Timbers O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: San Diego FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: San Diego FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: San Diego FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.