Mls · resolved market
Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8e3456af1b6ba85c4ae1a97bd7963645fe7fd666880f64137e559c09ee533d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x282f…7c4ebacked Under | 62c | 4,120$2,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 27c | 3,042$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.16 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 71c | 2,116$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.54 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 40c | 1,179$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.57 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Over | 14c | 860.41$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 17c | 785$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.32 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 38c | 692.17$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.73 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ef…e59abacked Under | 56c | 636.6$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 37c | 607$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.63 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…1c67backed Over | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 30c | 376.38$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…8abcbacked Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…c12abacked Under | 38c | 260$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 65c | 225.36$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.38 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…38f6backed Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Over | 16c | 144.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Under | 73c | 136.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 37c | 123.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 9c | 110$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 29c | 99.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 78c | 96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 73c | 95.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 80c | 92.83$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 66c | 89.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 51c | 88.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed Over | 26c | 86.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 79c | 75.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 57c | 62.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 74c | 60.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 35c | 52.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…2703backed Under | 72c | 50.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6b…172abacked Over | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 42c | 47.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c73…dd8fbacked Under | 48c | 41.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 62c | 32.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 50c | 30.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 71c | 24.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 58c | 23.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 69c | 18.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: Portland Timbers O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: San Diego FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: San Diego FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC: San Diego FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.