Tennis · resolved market

Brisbane International: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Brandon Nakashima

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38ff517a5366f721199b6fcda09662a02cd397b87a3a5d4357490a2f3bc3d3df

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Nakashimaof Kovacevic, Nakashima
Resolved: Jan 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $80,964
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $88,806

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,964 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2727…eef4backed Kovacevic	24c	13,348$3,230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,230.23	191	34%65 W · 126 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nakashima	71c	10,819$7,686 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,132.99	2,865	44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nakashima	72c	10,635$7,612 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,023.83	8,217	45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L	+166.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Kovacevic	20c	6,000$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,199.86	124	42.7%53 W · 71 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Nakashima	73c	5,983$4,346 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,636.93	1,446	48.8%706 W · 740 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd289…079fbacked Kovacevic	36c	5,556$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	25	68%17 W · 8 L	+2.7wins	+0.11per pick	57cpaid	+8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Kovacevic	28c	5,359$1,477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,477.4	761	40.6%309 W · 452 L	-15.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Kovacevic	34c	5,271$1,772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,771.73	89	36%32 W · 57 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nakashima	80c	5,057$4,045 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,011.35	2,746	30.8%846 W · 1,900 L	-67.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Kovacevic	0c	4,857$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.93	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Kovacevic	1c	3,295$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.81	6,720	36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L	-95.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Kovacevic	38c	2,620$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000.38	591	51.6%305 W · 286 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Nakashima	69c	1,576$1,095 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.93	206	53.4%110 W · 96 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Kovacevic	3c	1,543$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.41	2,068	34.9%721 W · 1,347 L	-44.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nakashima	69c	1,443$1,002 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$441.26	7,018	43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L	+124.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae90…f6c8backed Kovacevic	34c	1,200$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412	69	37.7%26 W · 43 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Kovacevic	29c	1,000$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	819	38.9%319 W · 500 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8da…cad3backed Nakashima	71c	1,000$710 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Kovacevic	28c	760$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.17per pick	55cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nakashima	70c	758.58$531 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.57	2,375	51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L	+8.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nakashima	62c	701.47$436 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.68	11,435	43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L	+17.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Nakashima	68c	575.17$389 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.57	2,982	39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L	-109.1wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nakashima	76c	456.76$348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.46	2,489	45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L	-27.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Nakashima	68c	441.18$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.18	1,186	62.8%745 W · 441 L	-16.1wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Kovacevic	32c	407.47$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	632	47.6%301 W · 331 L	-15.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Nakashima	63c	400$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148	440	38.4%169 W · 271 L	-27.2wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-29%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Nakashima	69c	390.94$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.44	1,655	50.1%829 W · 826 L	+30.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c8…dd64backed Nakashima	65c	357.14$233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.14	134	61.9%83 W · 51 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Kovacevic	30c	325$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.33	254	28%71 W · 183 L	-13.4wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Kovacevic	17c	314.72$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	2,335	46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L	+55.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ca8…db1fbacked Kovacevic	21c	308.52$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	123	44.7%55 W · 68 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed Nakashima	72c	301.59$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.89	128	61.7%79 W · 49 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbe…4d6abacked Nakashima	61c	300$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116	57	35.1%20 W · 37 L	+4.1wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Kovacevic	29c	299.98$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.99	1,158	44.4%514 W · 644 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Nakashima	71c	294.37$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.06	281	39.1%110 W · 171 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54fd…4ac3backed Kovacevic	35c	280$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Nakashima	71c	240.6$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.77	244	48.8%119 W · 125 L	+17.1wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Kovacevic	29c	218.16$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.91	276	27.2%75 W · 201 L	-25.2wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe798…b668backed Nakashima	69c	217.39$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.39	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	69cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb4c…1ca9backed Nakashima	71c	211.26$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.26	153	63.4%97 W · 56 L	+11.5wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Nakashima	72c	175.76$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.89	222	36.9%82 W · 140 L	-10.4wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed Nakashima	64c	168.69$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.28	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Kovacevic	17c	159.33$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Kovacevic	37c	140$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.8	373	39.1%146 W · 227 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Kovacevic	30c	133.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	174	32.2%56 W · 118 L	-15.1wins	-0.09per pick	41cpaid	-22%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Kovacevic	40c	126.22$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	982	40.1%394 W · 588 L	-7.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aa4…dbc5backed Kovacevic	35c	118.39$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.57	123	35%43 W · 80 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc42…01b2backed Nakashima	75c	105.58$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.12	100	59%59 W · 41 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Nakashima	71c	102.82$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.82	884	46.8%414 W · 470 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x789b…4c08backed Nakashima	73c	100.07$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.2	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0742…39a7backed Nakashima	65c	100$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Kovacevic	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	593	48.9%290 W · 303 L	+8.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Nakashima	68c	100$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32	255	42%107 W · 148 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb83f…b17ebacked Nakashima	70c	100$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	124	51.6%64 W · 60 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc48…196bbacked Nakashima	67c	90.17$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.75	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	61cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nakashima	70c	80$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	1,852	44.5%825 W · 1,027 L	-20.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa3a…a717backed Kovacevic	17c	77.49$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe759…3648backed Kovacevic	30c	75$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	155	51.6%80 W · 75 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Nakashima	70c	66.38$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.88	2,145	54.2%1,162 W · 983 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a5d…526fbacked Nakashima	73c	63.9$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.03	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb8…753bbacked Kovacevic	33c	60.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	191	29.8%57 W · 134 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80e2…9ff7backed Kovacevic	37c	59.73$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	44	38.6%17 W · 27 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…891bbacked Kovacevic	30c	56.67$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ede…3e71backed Kovacevic	33c	52.06$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.18	67	53.7%36 W · 31 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c2c…90d4backed Nakashima	70c	50.05$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.05	234	54.7%128 W · 106 L	+10.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked Kovacevic	36c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	76	44.7%34 W · 42 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Kovacevic	32c	47.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	86	45.3%39 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x698c…ba13backed Nakashima	62c	47.32$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.98	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.41per pick	59cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa15f…2f24backed Kovacevic	29c	45$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.95	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c82…05cfbacked Nakashima	70c	43.13$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	107	55.1%59 W · 48 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Nakashima	67c	40.37$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.37	253	55.7%141 W · 112 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f3…2795backed Nakashima	64c	38$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.67	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	55cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6834…67a5backed Nakashima	73c	36.24$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.75	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.13per pick	65cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa42b…45d2backed Nakashima	68c	26.04$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.33	43	58.1%25 W · 18 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	63cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8616…639ebacked Nakashima	78c	25.64$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.64	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	76cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b7f…e826backed Nakashima	66c	23$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.79	693	50.5%350 W · 343 L	-9.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaebc…41f2backed Nakashima	71c	21.13$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.13	24	83.3%20 W · 4 L	+4.4wins	+0.19per pick	65cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xed1b…4045backed Nakashima	72c	20.83$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.83	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.13per pick	67cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90e4…e026backed Nakashima	72c	16.63$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.72	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Nakashima	74c	15.65$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.09	149	47.7%71 W · 78 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01d9…1c24backed Nakashima	67c	15.16$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.04	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba34…7e93backed Nakashima	69c	15$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.7	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Brisbane International: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Brandon Nakashimathis page
Kovacevic vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 23.5Under won
Kovacevic vs. Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Set 1 Winner: Kovacevic vs NakashimaNakashima won
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Kovacevic (+1.5)Nakashima won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Brisbane International: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Brandon Nakashima

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event