Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x390921fc0a9e9725c3338b742e4658e5f54b7273e5ead5ed323b4f498d33c016
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 31c | 1,609$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 64c | 1,385$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.08 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 1,325$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 70c | 598$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.74 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 67c | 489.2$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.87 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 65c | 389$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.9 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 334.88$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.03 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 72c | 216$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 10c | 205.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 70c | 184$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 37c | 182.29$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 178.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 13c | 168.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 33c | 158.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 13c | 158.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 31c | 144.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 31c | 140$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 28c | 134$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 67c | 120$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 103.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 99.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 30c | 92.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 35c | 77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 75c | 72.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 17c | 60.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed No | 76c | 58.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 20c | 58.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 35c | 57.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658c…908bbacked No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 63c | 52.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 31c | 51.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 48.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8385…89a4backed Yes | 23c | 45.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 45.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 32c | 39.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…d118backed Yes | 33c | 35.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 34c | 33.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…f288backed No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 68c | 29.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 27.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 67c | 24.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 68c | 23.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 68c | 23.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 64c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 16.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 14.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 74c | 14.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 79°F or below on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.