Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b9637fb8e8b1e08be9d2d7e0560c9183f77c892ddc1ea98baa3062da70aaf4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9281…60febacked Yes | 40c | 713.73$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.73 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 46c | 537.51$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.59 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 61c | 387.61$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.2 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 339.55$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 47c | 322.23$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.59 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 318.68$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 44c | 239.98$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.01 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…7f85backed Yes | 48c | 232.1$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.84 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 205.39$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 195.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 189.34$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 148.32$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 67c | 141.07$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 135$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 133.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 59c | 123.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 122.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…5628backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +80%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 42c | 100.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ae…b8a8backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 79c | 85.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 83.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 35c | 80.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 41c | 65.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 77c | 65.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 33c | 63.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 33c | 61.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…13afbacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 39c | 58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 43c | 57.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 52c | 56.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 71c | 48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 41c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 45.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 56c | 42.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 36c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 38.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 56c | 38.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 50c | 32.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 62c | 32.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…ead3backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 57c | 27.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 56c | 26.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 38c | 26.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 58c | 25.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 73c | 20.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 67c | 16.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 67c | 15.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 79°F or below on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.