La Liga · resolved market
Will Valencia vs. Villarreal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x391859ed098e5d6b2b44c304b9b3558dd507fc7be8612d9718b72694cdc8b8d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Yes | 29c | 1,724$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 71c | 1,611$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.23 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 862$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.78 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 72c | 554.02$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.4 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 73c | 526$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.02 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 71c | 363.1$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 280 | 55%154 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…1427backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -6.6wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…05c1backed No | 66c | 303.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 72c | 259.69$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Yes | 29c | 231.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2633…1930backed Yes | 23c | 215.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…c5c8backed Yes | 29c | 173.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 26c | 144.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…b34bbacked Yes | 28c | 143.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 238 | 55.9%133 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked No | 72c | 107.44$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…c220backed No | 73c | 107.34$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 23c | 99.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb47…8c93backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…9e30backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 34c | 74.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 70c | 71.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 27c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 28c | 50.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 157 | 50.3%79 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa520…e1a2backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 72c | 30.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b06…b091backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 74cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75c4…699bbacked No | 74c | 23.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…76b4backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Valencia vs. Villarreal end in a draw?this page
- Will Valencia win on 2025-10-25?No won
- Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.