Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x394b121807f0e4071965744f9e58849f805f8a3da59a8b1bafb64d8f650d61e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Torino FCof AC Milan, Torino FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked AC Milan | 33c | 11,581$3,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,838.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Torino FC | 76c | 6,622$5,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,612.8 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Torino FC | 73c | 4,764$3,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.84 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Torino FC | 66c | 3,022$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.47 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed AC Milan | 13c | 1,571$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked AC Milan | 30c | 376.67$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked AC Milan | 30c | 326.66$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…7ba6backed AC Milan | 14c | 278.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e1…e6a2backed AC Milan | 34c | 129.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Torino FC | 66c | 129.83$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed AC Milan | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…d605backed AC Milan | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Torino FC | 68c | 97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Torino FC | 69c | 86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +46%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked AC Milan | 32c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed AC Milan | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Torino FC | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Torino FC | 70c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked AC Milan | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked AC Milan | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Torino FC | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f99…db70backed AC Milan | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed AC Milan | 31c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Torino FC | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b33…6c89backed AC Milan | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed AC Milan | 27c | 45.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed AC Milan | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked AC Milan | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Torino FC | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Torino FC | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Torino FC | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Torino FC | 77c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Torino FC | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Torino FC | 70c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)this page
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Over won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.