Serie A · resolved market
Torino FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x521c0d2b34481eb803aa5525cbc3b291258be965128824ccb05edb64e2669dd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 2,813$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.15 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 74c | 2,533$1,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,884.55 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Under | 76c | 1,093$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 24c | 1,081$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.63 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 13c | 876.63$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.96 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Over | 25c | 499.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.99 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 75c | 420.23$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed Over | 39c | 400$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 26c | 357.69$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.69 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 72c | 277.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 76c | 188$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.88 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 62c | 155.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 73c | 137$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 24c | 122.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.07 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a5…4300backed Under | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Under | 36c | 88.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.42per pick | 54cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…3ed6backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Under | 76c | 69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…0ea4backed Under | 42c | 66.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -6.2wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd20…eaa7backed Under | 64c | 66.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Over | 24c | 58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 36c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Under | 76c | 56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Over | 24c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Over | 24c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…beb8backed Over | 28c | 36.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +262.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cbf8backed Over | 46c | 31.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +16.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Under | 75c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77cc…fdccbacked Under | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…474cbacked Under | 77c | 24.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Under | 76c | 24.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 125 | 65.6%82 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562c…e035backed Under | 76c | 23.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 66c | 20.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 150 | 42%63 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…8a42backed Over | 78c | 16.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Over | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…493fbacked Under | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)Torino FC won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.