Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3960c301d8fa6cfd967a55d2b0ebd3fd0490e7858bf367d3b73a12ca89be6afe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes | 4c | 5,576$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b4…e4a0backed Yes | 4c | 5,543$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2d…1039backed Yes | 1c | 4,976$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes | 14c | 4,298$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,061$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 3c | 2,937$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 15c | 2,910$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.69 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…9769backed Yes | 11c | 2,033$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.3 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…bd26backed Yes | 1c | 1,960$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 1c | 1,881$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a2…e144backed Yes | 16c | 1,429$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,174$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,079$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.81 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…0d25backed Yes | 17c | 1,062$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a62…0ce7backed Yes | 17c | 568$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 2c | 564.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…aea9backed Yes | 18c | 370.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24de…83cbbacked No | 68c | 339$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 3c | 333.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 11c | 333.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes | 4c | 314.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…231bbacked No | 74c | 307.29$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde3…719abacked Yes | 17c | 293.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 4c | 270.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…c49cbacked Yes | 19c | 249.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 68c | 234.05$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 200.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7b…8674backed No | 72c | 177.45$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…e2f1backed Yes | 6c | 162.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…1c05backed No | 68c | 139.88$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 17c | 102.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed6c…8267backed Yes | 31c | 97.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Yes | 19c | 82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…25c0backed Yes | 14c | 70.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…2e49backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8403…5c98backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…0e43backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6c…7592backed No | 76c | 44.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3282…7cccbacked Yes | 67c | 44.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 54c | 36.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.