Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39739f0bc533db9f950af0ef9e4b7f82289441704e96fa5dd6e3389401eb15cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 5c | 330.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 32c | 229.91$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.37 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 228.75$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 28c | 211.85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 204.38$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 37c | 191.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.2 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 50c | 152.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 29c | 147.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.9 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 145.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.24 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 145.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.52 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 124$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 34c | 122.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked No | 66c | 121.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 17c | 118.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 78c | 118.25$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 36c | 112.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 69c | 110.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 103$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 49c | 102.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 96.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 49c | 90.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 24c | 84.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 78.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 40c | 75.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…e113backed Yes | 76c | 65.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e5…e017backed No | 66c | 55.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 44c | 53.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 76c | 53.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 42c | 53.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 47.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 38c | 44.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 46c | 43.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 43c | 37.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 37.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 77c | 37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 35.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 43c | 34.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 57c | 33.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 66c | 31.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa66…1c5bbacked No | 63c | 29.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 39c | 29.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 54c | 28.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 42c | 28.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 71c | 28.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…3359backed No | 49c | 26.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…a047backed Yes | 75c | 24.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 51c | 23.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…05a6backed No | 65c | 21.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 66c | 20.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed No | 74c | 19.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 74c | 17.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or below on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.