South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Paranaense vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3994332abc5a2e258c9387fd018991ced1ae78f5d534d88e2ad9cc9769250018
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Yes | 48c | 10,409$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,408.76 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 57c | 4,928$2,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,811.69 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 49c | 3,944$1,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,929.13 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 52c | 2,336$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.52 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 42c | 1,676$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.6 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 46c | 1,091$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.89 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +11.9wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Yes | 73c | 684.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.93 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 52c | 454.48$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.46 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 15c | 402.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff67…a1c9backed Yes | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed No | 43c | 394.02$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.75 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked No | 68c | 381.38$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 61c | 344.44$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.44 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 22c | 284.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 78c | 278.04$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…c86cbacked No | 74c | 240.86$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 76cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 39c | 223.9$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.38 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed No | 5c | 223.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 26c | 210.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.04 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 73c | 195.7$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.05 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed No | 50c | 188.8$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.86 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 43c | 184.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 20c | 178$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…b8d6backed Yes | 32c | 174.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.53 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 53c | 115.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 68c | 104.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 78.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 52c | 74.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 41c | 71.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 33c | 64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 56c | 57.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 28c | 51.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 74c | 49.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1818…2c75backed No | 43c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 53c | 35.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed No | 60c | 35.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked No | 59c | 31.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…c2a5backed Yes | 44c | 29.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x844d…780bbacked No | 55c | 28.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7378…8a24backed Yes | 58c | 27.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 39c | 26.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 51c | 25.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4284…4e8cbacked No | 53c | 23.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Paranaense vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-02?No won
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.