Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39acb3a7e025cd1291aeeb90ca2cb1fbcfe2db11ddcbfb4fc4c3beea3b6ae883
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 307.17$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 50c | 298.96$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.88 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 199.8$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 56c | 166$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.02 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 61c | 165.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 9c | 153.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 52c | 106.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 41c | 98.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 43c | 94.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 90.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 56c | 88.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 67c | 82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 24c | 73.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 75c | 72.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed Yes | 51c | 58.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 57.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 23c | 53.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 42c | 47.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 74c | 45.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 44c | 45.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 44.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 42.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 48c | 40.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 44c | 35.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 42c | 35.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 53c | 34.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…a859backed No | 57c | 33.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 44c | 31.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 28.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…a2c5backed No | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 54c | 26.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 55c | 23.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 22.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 47c | 22.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 61c | 20.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 87°F or below on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.