Champions League · resolved market
Benfica vs. Bayern Munich: 3+ Goals Scored?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39d9290238d7d3600b26ff5f3f9bbb28f6058acbc6f9f321b6f7e2e9426087b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed Yes | 61c | 11,471$6,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,944.96 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 42c | 5,926$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,427.44 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked No | 38c | 4,574$1,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,835.88 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes | 59c | 3,587$2,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,108.81 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed No | 43c | 2,716$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.5 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed No | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 39c | 2,370$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,454.75 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 54c | 1,135$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.05 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 57c | 921.81$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.61 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 45c | 731.65$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.91 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 58c | 679.98$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.39 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 49c | 637.6$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.97 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed No | 42c | 619.24$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.24 | 264 | 43.9%116 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes | 57c | 502.99$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.38 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f24…f47bbacked Yes | 58c | 489.66$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 39c | 421$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.81 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d1…8c4dbacked Yes | 59c | 414.64$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.64 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 39c | 400$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed0…77f7backed No | 43c | 399.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04c7…af7fbacked No | 78c | 382.34$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.34 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed No | 38c | 365.05$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.33 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 57c | 349.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 254 | 50%127 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +363.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Yes | 57c | 229.92$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…6578backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ab…13abbacked Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66d…f36fbacked Yes | 58c | 173$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7d…6020backed Yes | 63c | 130.32$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef5d…12e7backed Yes | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ce…4f07backed Yes | 57c | 126.32$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 58c | 118.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a69…5a45backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…a008backed Yes | 58c | 89.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…ce1ebacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c93…d494backed Yes | 61c | 74.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42d9…0293backed Yes | 61c | 72.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b2…1b0fbacked Yes | 57c | 69.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…ab8abacked Yes | 61c | 67.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 62c | 65.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Yes | 62c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b3…fd35backed Yes | 61c | 61.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54df…3449backed Yes | 61c | 57.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1c…5386backed Yes | 61c | 50.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 57c | 43.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…b798backed No | 39c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 228 | 47.8%109 W · 119 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…893abacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked Yes | 69c | 33.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d0…a38abacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab98…a89ebacked Yes | 63c | 28.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e8…32b3backed Yes | 61c | 26.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5613…10c9backed Yes | 61c | 25.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x632d…69e3backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd422…cf05backed Yes | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Yes | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.