NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Suns
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a00aa145a94b0ebd7a1c6732a75469c6f66a154e03b1dcabb3fb0167e8f1da0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Wizards, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $212,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $230,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Wizards | 0c | 23,300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 61 | 6.6%4 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards | 12c | 12,923$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Wizards | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Wizards | 12c | 9,283$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.99 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeee…35fbbacked Wizards | 6c | 6,673$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards | 9c | 6,418$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.4 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Wizards | 10c | 5,237$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.06 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Wizards | 11c | 4,798$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.36 | 777 | 45%350 W · 427 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2863…0e3ebacked Wizards | 2c | 4,296$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 157 | 41.4%65 W · 92 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Wizards | 2c | 3,556$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c0…7e50backed Wizards | 1c | 3,309$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +703.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Wizards | 14c | 3,171$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…2e07backed Wizards | 11c | 3,017$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.94 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Wizards | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 227 | 21.6%49 W · 178 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Wizards | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…1c86backed Wizards | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Wizards | 2c | 1,975$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 1,277 | 2.3%29 W · 1,248 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…f0ddbacked Wizards | 13c | 1,924$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.63 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Wizards | 11c | 1,795$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.43 | 406 | 27.8%113 W · 293 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Wizards | 1c | 1,731$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Wizards | 1c | 1,597$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 550 | 2.5%14 W · 536 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Wizards | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 134 | 8.2%11 W · 123 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…44c4backed Wizards | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00db…80dabacked Wizards | 7c | 1,346$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Wizards | 3c | 1,120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Wizards | 10c | 1,002$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 753 | 47.5%358 W · 395 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6860…ef1fbacked Wizards | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Wizards | 12c | 630.85$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 463 | 42.5%197 W · 266 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Wizards | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Wizards | 9c | 574.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Wizards | 5c | 539.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…e7e5backed Wizards | 12c | 495.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Wizards | 11c | 421.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2d…27e6backed Wizards | 12c | 416.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Wizards | 9c | 414.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Wizards | 10c | 409.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 736 | 47.3%348 W · 388 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…231bbacked Wizards | 7c | 340.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Wizards | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 217 | 23.5%51 W · 166 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b7…1b8ebacked Wizards | 12c | 284.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Wizards | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 169 | 28.4%48 W · 121 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Wizards | 11c | 220.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 365 | 14.2%52 W · 313 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9b…fe0fbacked Wizards | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 136 | 11.8%16 W · 120 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a9…dd6abacked Wizards | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…a39cbacked Wizards | 8c | 161.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 657 | 26%171 W · 486 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe7…6cbdbacked Wizards | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9d…2034backed Wizards | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…39a1backed Wizards | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 487 | 41.9%204 W · 283 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Wizards | 17c | 116.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 563 | 52%293 W · 270 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…9d02backed Wizards | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 261 | 24.1%63 W · 198 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Wizards | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Wizards | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 388 | 45.9%178 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4469…cefebacked Wizards | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.