Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a20c9304e014f9452d01dd99977c0755fd0087e3a9f46328c111fddfb2443cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18ef…f19cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,900$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…744abacked Yes | 4c | 1,201$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 2c | 593.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…8109backed Yes | 4c | 303.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 317 | 2.5%8 W · 309 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 57c | 271.22$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.75 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 31c | 270.03$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 4c | 254.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 16c | 250.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed No | 75c | 211.22$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 13c | 196.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 14c | 192.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 9c | 149.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 74c | 140.52$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 8c | 123.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 122$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 120.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 10c | 112.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 10c | 111.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fd…7e7ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 42c | 91.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 12c | 85.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…9da0backed Yes | 14c | 73.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 31c | 71.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 28c | 69.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 27c | 63.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 23c | 61.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 54.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 33c | 51.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 43c | 47.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 37c | 45.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 44.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 72c | 43.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 41c | 40.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 40.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 62c | 40.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 53c | 37.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 35c | 32.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 78c | 27.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae3…332cbacked Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…61dfbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 54c | 18.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.